Orlando Magic?

The GM Meetings seem like such a surreal experience. The general managers of all 30 teams are in a hotel together, hanging out in Florida for a week sipping Mai Tai’s. You wonder which hall or floor of the hallway is the rowdiest; do they put the young guys (Andrew Friedman, Jon Daniels, Theo Epstein, et al) together, or do they separate them in the hopes of avoiding turning Orlando into a temporary Red Light District? How many dirty looks get shot Scott Boras’ way as he walks around? Maybe Jon Daniels went up to him and thanked him for The Opt Out because it gave him the opportunity to throw $30 million at Barry Bonds this offseason. It must be difficult for any GM to get too close to Boras, what with that smell of rotten flesh emanating from the bottoms of his shoes from stomping on so many organizations’ skulls.

Regardless of the potential comedy of the proceedings in Orlando, it’s an interesting time of the Hot Stove season. Teams can’t openly negotiate with free agents until next week, so the GM Meetings represent a great time for behind the scenes positioning and “secret, late night conversations” that set the stage for the bidding wars that will begin on Tuesday.

The early returns from the meetings, in the Yankees Universe, make only a few things seem certain:

1. A-Rod will be offered salary arbitration. This is a formality, as it seems extremely unlikely that Opt-Rod will accept arbitration or try to use it as a ploy to get the Yankees back to the negotiating table to once again talk contract. It is, however, an extremely helpful formality, since it ensures the Yankees not one, but two, compensatory draft picks; so hypothetically once the Angels sign A-Rod, the Yankees get their first round pick, plus a pick in the sandwich round. My knowledge of the potential strength or weakness of the 2008 draft is non-existent, but it still feels like a good thing based on the impetus placed on amateur talent over the past 3 years. Hopefully the surplus of picks will yield a position player of some merit, unless the Yankees are hoping to have the first ever 7-man rotation come 2010.
2. Johnny Damon will be playing left field almost every day next season. The superlatives thrown around by Cashman regarding Johnny in the meetings unearth numerous interesting possibilities. First, it made me immediately wonder if the press was overlooking the possibilities of an outfielder being trade bait that wasn’t Melky or Johnny: all the talk of ’08 thus far has excluded Godzilla from inclusion, and perhaps it’s loose speculation on my part, but he seems to be the trade bait in the outfield. His LF skills now seem diminished, his body has caused him problems for 2 years straight, he’s proven to be unflappable and a consummate professional while putting together nothing but solid statistical seasons in pinstripes, but he’s also a legitimate commodity in the trade market: his salary, $13 mill per year, is identical to Johnny, yet it seems like the Yankees are more enamored with what Johnny can provide them in comparison to Hideki. His year-in, year-out production would make him appealing to potential suitors, and the Yanks might be able to get more in return by dealing him as opposed to Damon. So while it might be perceived as another power threat removed from the middle of the Yankees order, you would stand more of a chance of replacing that power by dealing Matsui, and might even get something further than another run producer…perhaps, maybe, a proven and effective middle reliever, a commodity that the team strongly lacks these days.

With that said, 3B remains the hottest corner of debate for these months. Miguel Cabrera is the sexy first name to appear, but for once it seems certain that the rhetoric of not giving away young pitching seems legitimate and not just posing to up trade value. Any out of Hughes/Chamberlain/Kennedy won’t be traded anywhere except to Minnesota within the next two years, and that would involve the Yankees acquiring the best pitcher in the AL still in his prime, something that by July, depending on any of the 3’s performance, might not be such a bad thing.

So with them off the table, the options that surface are not particularly appetizing, but some are more intriguing than others.

-We know about Wilson Betemit. Cashman wants him to report in the best shape of his career, he put Robinson Cano in charge of it, and I don’t know how that will end up working out, but it’s worth a shot. He was considered, at one time, one of the better prospects in the game, so perhaps he’s due for some kind of late-20s revelatory moment. Too much of a gamble, it seems, to rely on that and that alone without bringing in an alternative, or at least a platoon partner.

-Now the speculation. Joe Crede seems out of the mix now that the organization has pledged its support for Johnny Damon, plus the Yankees have not been sexy-talking in regards to Crede’s ability or their discussions with the ChiSox. Since Kenny Williams, GM of the Sox, has stated publicly that they have 2 3B-men and they want to rectify that situation, perhaps Josh Fields is available as well as Crede? Either way, though, I don’t see the worth of trading talent for either one of them, since one is coming off an injury, and the other is still unproven and unpolished.

-Mike Lowell will, it seems, stick with the Red Sox. Good for him, good for the emotions of the ever-sappy Red Sox fans, also good for the Yankees as you can pretty much bank on him never repeating his 2007 numbers based on the foreseeable decline of his abilities and health. Sure you can talk about how his swing is perfect for Fenway, etc., but he had played there a whole season prior to ’07, to the tune of:

.284/.339/.475-20-80

Respectable, no doubt, for a third-bagger, and combined with his superlative defensive acumen, there is no way to criticize the Red Sox re-upping him for 3 or 4 years…except for what he’ll be looking like at the end of that contract. It’s not as much of a disaster to see a player like that age poorly on the team that he experienced the glory of his best career year culminating in a World Series victory; but it would be a disaster for him to age poorly after switching sides and probably being overpaid by the Yankees to play third and see his numbers decline. So, good for him, good for the Sox, and in the end, so too is it good for the Yankees.

-Other candidates, in quick-hit style:
a) Eric Chavez. Awful past two seasons, which have featured a huge decline in health and overall production, with 2007 seeming to be rock bottom. However, is he totally done? Remember that from 2000-2005 he was right around 25 HR/100 RBIs, plus a mid-to-high .800s OPS every single year, with 2006 representing a year full of injuries yet still seeing him manage to hit 22 HRs. His price might be lower now based on the uncertainty surrounding his health (back surgery this fall, combined with a shoulder surgery this past September, although he’s supposed to be ready for the spring.), but he still more resembles Joe Crede than Graig Nettles: great defender, power would translate to the Stadium better than Crede’s might, tons of questions. Plus you have the Billy Beane factor, where he’s going to try to seep a prospect or two that could be too valuable for the Yankees to part with.

b) Scott Rolen. No chance of hitting more than 10 HRs in Yankee Stadium since his shoulder barely is still attached to his upper body. His poor relationship with LaRussa makes it seem like he’d be available, but the Cards have said they don’t want to move him; plus, he has a no trade clause and would seem to be the last guy suited to play in New York based on his great desire to get the hell out of Philadelphia and his perceived air of sensitivity. He was productive as recently as ’06, but he seems to have an even lower likelihood than Chavez or Crede of performing admirably in the power/production categories once in the pinstripes. He would, however, be a pleasure to watch defensively at 3rd. Still, he seems the least likely candidate.

With that said, I don’t even know where else to look for other candidates. The likelihood of Wilson Betemit getting a lot of playing time at 3rd next season looks pretty strong as this third season of the baseball cycle gets heated up. As I alluded to before, it seems like we’ll have to wait and see if a mystery candidate emerges; or if A-Rod decides he hasn’t gotten enough attention since opting out and comes crawling back, although that would require him breaking up with Boras and taking a pay cut, two things that probably make A-Rod’s gag reflex kick in faster than food not cooked by he and his wife’s servants especially to their liking. Hopefully whoever ends up playing third can manage to catch the ball, advance runners and not give a shit who they’re replacing; really, that’s all that the Yankees should be using to judge any potential new hires for the job.