Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Last night was a rarity. The bullpen blowout that cost the Yankees a lead late in the game has generally been rare this year, although not lately (see: the debacle in Anaheim this past Saturday). Mariano Rivera serving up the game-tying gopher ball is the shocking part of the equation. The offense, specifically the Golden-Rod, producing a timely home run to give them the lead, was surprising. Even more so was their ability to tack on 2 more runs after A-Rod’s blast to give 12th inning closer Edwar Ramirez a 3-run cushion.

What’s most shocking to me, though, is that they actually won an extra-innings game on the road. They had lost their only three extra inning road games this year, including one on that same Minnesota field on May 31st. Since 2007, their record in such games was a whopping 1-10. Not a huge sample size when you consider how few games it is total. However, all those circumstances make the win last night a satisfying one. The problem, however, is that there’s no way to predict if that win will have any positive residual effect on this afternoon’s matinée affair in the Hubert H. Humphrey Dome. The cliché is that a team’s momentum is based on the next day’s pitcher. That doesn’t seem to favor the Yankees, as Darrell Rasner is fresh off a demotion to the bullpen that he escaped thanks to Ian Kennedy’s physical and mental implosion in Anaheim. They are going to have to put some runs up on the board, early and often ideally. Kevin Slowey is a good candidate to comply, as the Yankees have already touched him up on two occasions so far this year. Should be an interesting game, for a number of reasons:

--A terrible Rasner performance could force the organization’s hand in deciding what to do next with the rehabbing Phil Hughes. This weekend’s starters are set, with Pettitte, Ponson and Mussina scheduled to toe the rubber. Next Tuesday in Toronto, however, is where it gets interesting, and Dan Giese is the central figure of interest. Giese deserves another start based on his performance Saturday in Anaheim. However, Dan is also the team’s best long reliever. It’s feasible that he’d be needed to pitch today and perhaps one game this weekend, if either Rasner, Ponson or Pettitte flame out early in their starts.

If he pitches twice between now and Tuesday, Phil will be up and starting in Toronto. If he doesn’t pitch today but is used over the weekend for an inning or two, I still think he starts on Tuesday. All of these scenarios aside, though, I think barring injury or poor performance at Scranton, Hughes is back in the rotation next weekend in Baltimore.

--Derek Jeter fouled a pitch off his instep of his left foot last night, and even though Girardi said that he thought he’d start today’s game, Jeter is on the bench. Wilson Betemit is starting at SS today, and you assume that Jeter will be well enough to start Friday night in the Bronx. It’s unbelievable to me how bad Betemit has looked at the plate all this season, yet how much confidence Joe Girardi has in constantly putting him in the lineup. How can occasional home run power overcome tons of strikeouts and defensive mediocrity? The Yankees’ bench has not been good in 10 years because of players like Betemit littering the roster.

--Tampa lost last night in Oakland so the Yankees picked up a game, and they’re now 8 back in the AL East race. No advance in the Wild Card hunt, as Boston won a football game against the Texas Rangers, 19-17. They were winning 10-0 after the first inning, yet Charlie “Tim Wakefield 2.0” Zink gave it all back in his major league debut.

It’s still unrealistic to be gunning for the Rays based on the size of the deficit, but Crawford and Longoria out of their lineup change their dynamic a whole lot. They have been winning all year with pitching, but their young pitchers have thrown a lot of innings and have never experienced the wear and tear of pennant race games in August and September. The possibility is still there, but the Yankees need to pretty much win or split every series they play from here on in, including against teams like the Angels, Rays and Red Sox. A tall order, for sure. Boston is more vulnerable head-to-head without Ramirez and with people like Lowell and Varitek struggling, but they are still winning games and scoring runs. The Yankees have to almost become a different team over the next 6 weeks, and a short-term personality makeover is hard to do in baseball. Usually by August, you are what you are as a team and your identity isn’t changing drastically.

--Mark Melancon gave up the 2 runs that Phil Hughes was charged with in Pawtucket last night, as he relieved Hughes in the 6th after Phil had allowed two men to reach base and had hit his magic pitch count number of 85. Still, though, bringing Melancon into the middle of an inning is a sign that the Yankees have to be considering promoting him to help their bullpen, which has struggled lately after a season of overachieving. It should be interesting to see if their from-within reinforcements (Hughes, Matsui, maybe Melancon) pan out this year. Kennedy is already firmly in the “didn’t pan out” category of reinforcements, and unlikely to move from there before October. But three out of four would be a great ratio.

Back later with more about today’s game.

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