This Weekend: Usurping Royalty From K.C.

Games 122-124
vs. Kansas City Royals

Pitching Probables

Tonight, Friday, August 15
Gil Meche (10-9, 4.24) vs. Andy Pettitte (12-9, 4.32)

Saturday, August 16
Zack Greinke (9-8, 4.09) vs. Sidney Ponson (7-3, 4.27)

Sunday, August 17
Brian Bannister (7-11, 5.36) vs. Mike Mussina (15-7, 3.30)

Series Analysis/Predictions

This series features two teams that are 3-7 over their last stretch of ten games. The Royals are coming off a tidy sweep at the hands of the Chicago White Sox, and have had a particularly ugly stretch of ball where they’ve only gotten one win out of their last nine games. They were playing playoff-caliber teams in those 9 games (Boston, ChiSox and Minnesota), so it will be interesting to see how the Yankees handle them. It’s a nice indirect litmus test of sorts—if the Yankees spank K.C., then maybe they’re not as far behind those other “playoff” teams as they’ve looked lately. If the Yankees struggle to win games this weekend, then you can turn the lights off of 2008. This stretch of 9 games against K.C., Toronto and Baltimore is where they have to string wins together if they are going to try and realistically get back into this race. Anything less than 6-3 makes me finally lose hope for this season for good, and will have me looking forward to only select moments of the remaining games in Yankee Stadium.

As for the match-ups I listed above, I thik it’s going to be a tough task for this offense to sweep. Greinke is the best pitcher of the three, and the Yankees have had mixed results against him this year. He beat them in a start earlier in the season in Missouri, but the Yankees beat him in his only start in the Bronx. He has pitched poorly since the All-Star Break, posting a 6.83 ERA in his 5 starts. Still, a pitcher with his kind of stuff (power fastball, nasty breaking pitches) has shut the Yankees’ offense down all season long.

Gil Meche, tonight’s starter, has virtually the same numbers as Andy Pettitte. Unlike Andy, Meche has pitched better in the second half this year, as he’s received victories in 4 of his last 5 starts. He beat Boston two starts ago, and received a no-decision against the Twins in his last start. Alarming, and hopefully reassuring for the Yankees’ patient veterans, is his BB::K ratio in those two starts: 12::15. A-Rod and Jeter have good career numbers against him in larger sample sizes, with Abreu and Nady also having success in limited opportunities facing the right-hander.

Brian Bannister is a guy that was floated around as someone the Yankees might have had interest in. I don’t really know why, since they have a pitcher with almost identical statistics already on their roster, Mr. Darrell Rasner. Bannister pitches kind of like Rasner, relying on changing speeds early in counts and often in order to keep hitters off-balance. Since the end of June, Bannister’s ERA has risen from a pedestrian 4.88 to an ugly 5.36, as he has been winless for all of July and August. He’s given up less runs as of late, but he should be the type of pitcher that the Yankees offense can do some damage against: not overpowering, can be forced to throw hittable strikes if he gets into deep counts.

Overall, I think the Yankees need a three-game sweep to build any momentum and regain any sliver of confidence that this team has what it takes to even be in the conversation for a playoff spot. I think they can skate by with good performances from 2 out of the 3 starters, as K.C. has been struggling to score runs for quite a while now. So you figure that one of the two of Pettitte and Ponson can struggle (and remember, Pettitte did give up 10 earned runs to Kansas City earlier in the year), but the team can not afford two combustible performances from starters, especially with the bullpen worn thin with the loss of Dan Giese and relative lack of a long man.