Inside the Holliday Trade (Preliminary Edition)

So the earlier-discussed Matt Holliday trade has been somewhat clarified a day later, albeit with uncertainty still clouding the deal’s finalized specifics. The principals that have emerged going from Oakland to Colorado are the aforementioned Greg Smith, along with highly-touted outfielder Carlos Gonzalez and former Rookie of the Year turned flamed-out closer Huston Street.

As it stands, I think the deal makes sense for both teams, but I think there is a lot more risk from Billy Beane’s standpoint. Street was expendable after other (really, cheaper) internal options emerged for the back-end of the bullpen (see: Brad Ziegler, Joey Devine, and Santiago Casilla). However, he is a proven closer who struggled at points last year, lost his closer’s job, yet still ended up having a decent overall season out of the ‘pen. The risk in including him for Holliday, to me, is that you’re not maximizing his value. Street seems like the kind of player that this offseason could have netted Beane one of his 2-or-3-deep prospect platters that he’s consumed so eagerly since last winter. Instead, Beane had to combine Street with a terrible sell-low mistake/inexplicable “Billy Beane donating to the 2009 Rockies’ Chances” charity case: Carlos Gonzalez.

Gonzalez floundered badly in his debut in Oakland, putting up a putrid 100-points-lower-than-league-average .634 OPS in 300+ plate appearances. So, basically he never walked and he showed only doubles power, albeit in his first taste of big-league action. But, keep in mind he did this all while 22 and while calling home the notoriously-cavernous McAfee Coliseum in Oakland. Also keep in mind that he’s been fitted for that heavy label of a “five-tool” talent. With that said, I think this is the lowest possible point to sell him, and his prospects for 2009 can only improve with a move to Coors Field and the awful NL West.

From the Rockies perspective, I score this as a good haul with a still-TBD final verdict. Today there is speculation that they will spin Huston Street to another team, which in theory makes sense as a result of the presence of Manny Corpas and Taylor Buchholz as cheaper closer alternatives. There is also a big market for closers this winter, so perhaps a team that doesn’t want to pay the price on a hefty free agent like K-Rod would be hungry for Huston Street in exchange for prospects (one such logical match could be the Detroit Tigers, another could be the Milwaukee Brewers. Ken Rosenthal says the Indians are asking about him, apparently not impressed by Jensen Lewis' performance late in the year).

Even if they keep Street, though, the deal makes sense for Colorado. Holliday’s ship had sailed and he was getting dealt sooner or later. In this trade, they get 3 pieces that they can immediately use at the major league level in 2009. Yes, the Rockies have a lot of outfield talent in the minors (Dexter Fowler and Seth Smith) and still have Brad Hawpe, Wily Taveras and Ryan Spillborghs under contract even after removing Holliday. While that may sound like a glut, it isn’t, considering Tavares and Spillborghs have no business playing every day, and you can’t hand Smith or Fowler a guaranteed major league job to start 2009. Adding Gonzalez gives you another high-upside option that may flourish and earn the right to play all year in CF or RF, or may find himself plugging away for the Sky Sox while someone else gets a chance.

In Smith they have a serviceable fourth or fifth starter who is left handed and very cheap, which is an appealing commodity in today’s game. Starting pitching is what the Rox need if they’re going to improve, and adding Smith to the equation can’t really stunt their progress on that front, although it is by no means any sort of coup. Add that to the fact that they are still shopping Garret Atkins and Wily Taveras presumably in exchange for pitching, and I think this looks like it could be a successful reloading offseason for Dan O’Dowd (even though I expect him to get very little for Taveras, Atkins should fetch something useful).

Beane is rolling the dice on getting one really good year out of a hitter with noticeable-but-not-terrible Coors Field/away splits that is moving to a pitcher’s park. Oakland, too, has a surplus of young outfielders, but I think Gonzalez was the most valuable trade chip and had the most potential to breakout in 2009. The offensive gain that Beane is paying for for 2009 may well be undone once 2010 rolls around, unless Travis Buck or Ryan Sweeney make The Leap. Street, to me, could have netted Beane more of a return in a separate deal considering the fact that teams want closers, especially budget-conscious teams. With all that considered, I think this one scores as advantage: Rockies.