Bird Bash?

Games 128-130
@ Baltimore Orioles

Pitching Match-ups

Tonight, Friday August 22
Mike Mussina (16-7, 3.35) vs. Radhames Liz (4-3, 7.47)

Saturday, August 23
Carl Pavano (0-0, 0.00) vs. Jeremy Guthrie (10-6, 3.15)

Sunday, August 24
Darrell Rasner (5-9, 4.93) vs. Daniel Cabrera (8-8, 4.98)

Series Analysis

So now the Yankees are in the precarious position of absolutely having to sweep the Baltimore Orioles this weekend in order to stay afloat. In New York, the Yankees have vanished from the back pages of the tabloids, which have mostly buried the team and turned their attention towards the Olympics and the Mets. The Post has engraved the tombstone and started the countdown until the Yankees are eliminated from playoff contention. And so the season has come and gone for the Yankees in the eyes of the daily papers and their lowest common denominator pandering. Still, there is a lot yet to be determined, and one of those things is if the Yankees are really totally dead or not. They have 1 and three-quarters feet in the grave, no doubt about it, but I think the series coming up against Boston, and what position the team is in when they start that series, is when you decide if the season is dead or not.

But, like I said, they pretty much need a sweep this weekend in Baltimore. They have to face two pitchers that have absolutely shut their offense down this year in Jeremy Guthrie and Daniel Cabrera, and they are subjecting themselves to a circus-like atmosphere by starting Carl Pavano on Saturday night. A sweep is not going to be easy to come by because of those factors. Any mis-steps by Yankees starting pitching will mean sure doom considering their offense has a glass jaw on par with a terrible team completely out of the race and playing out the stretch run in September. Meaning, they pack it in as soon as they fall behind by more than a run or two. Any four or five run deficit is insurmountable for this group of overpaid, underachieving, and aging one-time superstars.

So the weight of the “Yankees Universe” will fall on the shoulders of The Moose tonight in the park where he made his name. He’ll need to provide some sanity, and the offense will have to tattoo an erratic rookie, in order to set the stage for the return of the Plastic Pitcher.

My prediction for Saturday, I mean, I can’t even begin to predict that game. Pavano could come out and completely lay an egg and I wouldn’t be one bit surprised. He could throw a game like he threw on Opening Day 2007 when he gave up some runs but kept the game close into the 5th inning and gave way to the bullpen. He could also throw 6 or 7 shutout innings, and I wouldn’t be surprised. Nothing can ever surprise a Yankees fans anymore when it comes to Carl Pavano—he has re-written the book on surprising a fan base. And Guthrie is the Orioles’ best starter hands down, and he has pitched well against the Yankees in each of his starts against them this year. This to me is the hardest game of the series to predict a Yankees victory in. But, this year has been so bizarre that anything is possible—it’s not like the Orioles are a great team, but they have killed Yankees pitching all year, and I don’t see Pavano bucking that trend.

Sunday’s game could potentially be a high scoring one if the Yankees figure out how to hit Daniel Cabrera, a secret that the 13 other teams in the AL have picked up on this year. That combined with Rasner coming off an out-of-his-mind start against the Jays that I doubt he will recreate, means there should be some runs scored. The Yankees have not won many slugfests, but Camden Yards has been a friendly confines to them for many years, so I am guessing they end up taking 2 out of 3 in this series, winning tonight and Sunday.

Some random notes before I sign off for tonight.

--I am actually going to the Mets/Astros game tonight, in an effort to get there one last time before they turn the place into a parking lot, and because I need to see an actual baseball team that plays in New York in person (joking). It’s a great pitching match-up between Johan and Roy Oswalt, so I’m hoping for a great game. I still don’t regret not trading for and signing Santana, even as more and more fans clamor that the Yankees will end up paying more for Sabathia this offseason than they would have ended up paying for Santana. Those idiot fans don’t realize that they won’t have to both trade for AND sign Sabathia, though. Those same fans, however, have already decided that Phil Hughes is washed up and will never amount to anything so they should have just traded him last year.

--Speaking of the much-maligned Phil Hughes, he pitches again for Scranton/Wilkes Barre tonight. I will be curious to see if he overcomes his self-described dead arm and pitches more like he was in his first few rehab starts, as opposed to his outing last Sunday. A good performance by Phil and a poor one by Pavano on Saturday would increase some pressure to pull the plug on Carl’s starting gig and give Phil a shot. No concept of what the team’s leash will be like with Pavano, and I would be appalled if they gave him respect and actually ran him out there regardless of if he stinks it up or not.

I’ll be watching the out of town scoreboard from my seats at Shea tonight and hoping to see some crooked numbers next to NYY. Hopefully, there won’t be any crooked numbers popping up next to the BAL portion of the scoreboard.