Prognosis: Pavano

Nothing has been made official as of yet, but it is looking like Carl Pavano will be the team’s choice to start Saturday night’s game in Baltimore. It seemed like his candidacy was in doubt when the Post’s George King, the man who has most reviled Pavano during his time as a complete waste of the Yankees’ money and dubbed him the “American Idle”, broke this story about Carl suffering from a stiff neck the day after his Sunday start in Trenton.

He skipped his bullpen session on Tuesday, which seemed to be another red flag. Was Pavano again asking out of major league duty due to a mysterious injury?

It would appear, however, that the severity of his stiff neck and his skipping a bullpen have been clarified. Not just by GM Brian Cashman’s quotes that he was “fine” and was experiencing normal stiffness. No, Carl Pavano declared himself ready, as hard as this may be to believe, through his actions, namely walking up the mound and throwing in Trenton on Wednesday. He threw a bullpen that was described in this story as being “perfect” by Trenton’s pitching coach. I can only speculate what his definition of perfect is: perfect because Carl didn’t tweak his left ear while compensating for his stiff neck? Perfect because Carl showed up not reeking of booze from an all-night binge session of boozing and shacking up with a random New Jersey floozy? Perfect because he didn’t crash his Lamborghini on the way to the ballpark and break every bone in his pitching hand?

All jokes aside, Carl is currently the hands-down best choice for Saturday’s start. Considering Phil Hughes’ struggles in his recent Scranton outing and, well, the other choice being Victor Zambrano, I’d much rather see what Carl has to offer. For some reason a rotation that includes Sidney Ponson, Darrell Rasner and Victor Zambrano seems like it should be featured in the International League playoff race, not the American League Wild Card chase.

My perception of Crash-Test Dummy Carl, however, is a little different even in spite of all those “injuries” and all those frustrating days spent doing something other than pitching for my team. The few moments he’s been healthy in his career, he hasn’t been a terrible pitcher. So the question will be how his still-recovering pitching arm and arsenal will adjust to again facing major leaguers on Saturday. Baltimore has an extremely potent offense, so it will be an extremely tough test for Pavano. My guess is he will have a short leash, both in Saturday’s game and in general in terms of having a rotation spot. No string of good starts can really erase the 3 years of unbelievable frustration he caused, but it really will be must-see television when he toes the rubber in Camden Yards Saturday night.

I don’t mean to draw undeserved and unnecessary levels of attention to one game, because honestly it may not mean anything in the long run of the season. The game’s importance and Carl’s potential impact on the season will first and foremost depend on what happens over the next two games.

The Yankees are facing one of their (and the entire American League’s) biggest antagonists this season in Roy Halladay, and they have been awful in the first games of series all year long, so Friday in Baltimore is no sure thing, even if the O’s are throwing an erratic and hittable young starter. That could get balanced out since Friday’s starter for the Yankees, The Moose, has been knocked around by his former team this year. Granted, most Yankees starting pitchers have gotten knocked around by the Orioles this year, but hopefully that trend ends in Charm City this weekend.

So, by the time Carl takes the mound on Saturday, a lot of bad could be swirling around the team…and I don’t know how that is a good environment for one of the central harbingers of Yankees fans’ sorrows in recent years to make his triumphant return. But, then again, a lot of good could have happened once Pavano returns. A win tonight against Halladay would be a dream come true considering how easily he’s throttled the Bronx “Bombers” this year. That, following the tidy, clean win last night would be the perfect way to erase the bad taste left from Tuesday night’s fiasco, and it would give the team a lot of confidence as they head south to a ballpark where, historically, they’ve hit well and won a lot of games.

I’m excited by this wondrously bizarre development, but I can’t really get myself to focus totally on it until I see some more good results tonight and tomorrow. Suffice is to say, I’ve circled Saturday in red on my calendar.