The Washington Nationals and Florida Marlins orchestrated an inter-division deal yesterday, an opening salvo for two teams that could look a lot different come March. Florida sent Josh Willingham and Scott "Don't Tase Me, Bro" Olsen to the Nats in exchange for infielder Emilio Bonifacio and two low-level prospects, second baseman Jake Smolinski and right-handed pitcher P.J. Dean.
The Nats fill two needs: someone who may, possibly, drive in some runs. And, someone who isn't a total retread who can make some quality big league starts.
The Marlins...apparently they once again need to reduce salary? I don't get it, aren't they
For the Nats I think the deal makes a lot of sense, but they are adding another huge injury question mark to their offensive mix that includes the likes of Nick Johnson (38 games, apparently now trade bait), Elijah Dukes (81 games), Wily Mo Pena (64 games) and Austin Kearns (86 games). Willingham has never been a huge bat but he is serviceable, and I guess Jim Bowden's idea is to accumulate as many OFers who have talent but are always hurt and see who of the bunch can stick. It would be one of the first ideas that Bowden ever had.
Olsen's inclusion is the real coup for the Nats, and the real head-scratcher for the Fish. They play in a pitcher's park in Florida, and Olsen had a decent year in 2008, albeit an up-and-down one. But, according to this Keith Law post, he regained some of his velocity (he is a post-TJ guy) late in the season and his performance ticked up a bit. Law still finds problems with Olsen, but wouldn't this be the kind of guy the Marlins would hold on to in the off-chance that he might pitch even better early in 2009, thus making him even more valuable in a trade? Yes, you run the risk of him either pitching terribly or getting hurt or something along those lines. But I don't buy the argument that this is selling high on Scott Olsen, who is supposedly healthy and over his "personal demons" for the first time in a while. Granted, he never projected to be Mr. #1 Ace Type, but I still think you can get more value than what the Marlins got for an effective lefty starter.
This trade lands decisively in the advantage: Nationals column. I am interested to see if the Fish get more of a return on their other supposedly available commodities, reliever Kevin Gregg and outfielder Jeremy Hermida. If not, it is going to be a cellar-dwelling 2009 for the Marlins. As for Washington, I don't know if this trade means they are done trying to upgrade the offense and are no longer in the Mark Teixeira Sweepstakes, but only time will tell on that front.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
So the earlier-discussed Matt Holliday trade has been somewhat clarified a day later, albeit with uncertainty still clouding the deal’s finalized specifics. The principals that have emerged going from Oakland to Colorado are the aforementioned Greg Smith, along with highly-touted outfielder Carlos Gonzalez and former Rookie of the Year turned flamed-out closer Huston Street.
As it stands, I think the deal makes sense for both teams, but I think there is a lot more risk from Billy Beane’s standpoint. Street was expendable after other (really, cheaper) internal options emerged for the back-end of the bullpen (see: Brad Ziegler, Joey Devine, and Santiago Casilla). However, he is a proven closer who struggled at points last year, lost his closer’s job, yet still ended up having a decent overall season out of the ‘pen. The risk in including him for Holliday, to me, is that you’re not maximizing his value. Street seems like the kind of player that this offseason could have netted Beane one of his 2-or-3-deep prospect platters that he’s consumed so eagerly since last winter. Instead, Beane had to combine Street with a terrible sell-low mistake/inexplicable “Billy Beane donating to the 2009 Rockies’ Chances” charity case: Carlos Gonzalez.
Gonzalez floundered badly in his debut in Oakland, putting up a putrid 100-points-lower-than-league-average .634 OPS in 300+ plate appearances. So, basically he never walked and he showed only doubles power, albeit in his first taste of big-league action. But, keep in mind he did this all while 22 and while calling home the notoriously-cavernous McAfee Coliseum in Oakland. Also keep in mind that he’s been fitted for that heavy label of a “five-tool” talent. With that said, I think this is the lowest possible point to sell him, and his prospects for 2009 can only improve with a move to Coors Field and the awful NL West.
From the Rockies perspective, I score this as a good haul with a still-TBD final verdict. Today there is speculation that they will spin Huston Street to another team, which in theory makes sense as a result of the presence of Manny Corpas and Taylor Buchholz as cheaper closer alternatives. There is also a big market for closers this winter, so perhaps a team that doesn’t want to pay the price on a hefty free agent like K-Rod would be hungry for Huston Street in exchange for prospects (one such logical match could be the Detroit Tigers, another could be the Milwaukee Brewers. Ken Rosenthal says the Indians are asking about him, apparently not impressed by Jensen Lewis' performance late in the year).
Even if they keep Street, though, the deal makes sense for Colorado. Holliday’s ship had sailed and he was getting dealt sooner or later. In this trade, they get 3 pieces that they can immediately use at the major league level in 2009. Yes, the Rockies have a lot of outfield talent in the minors (Dexter Fowler and Seth Smith) and still have Brad Hawpe, Wily Taveras and Ryan Spillborghs under contract even after removing Holliday. While that may sound like a glut, it isn’t, considering Tavares and Spillborghs have no business playing every day, and you can’t hand Smith or Fowler a guaranteed major league job to start 2009. Adding Gonzalez gives you another high-upside option that may flourish and earn the right to play all year in CF or RF, or may find himself plugging away for the Sky Sox while someone else gets a chance.
In Smith they have a serviceable fourth or fifth starter who is left handed and very cheap, which is an appealing commodity in today’s game. Starting pitching is what the Rox need if they’re going to improve, and adding Smith to the equation can’t really stunt their progress on that front, although it is by no means any sort of coup. Add that to the fact that they are still shopping Garret Atkins and Wily Taveras presumably in exchange for pitching, and I think this looks like it could be a successful reloading offseason for Dan O’Dowd (even though I expect him to get very little for Taveras, Atkins should fetch something useful).
Beane is rolling the dice on getting one really good year out of a hitter with noticeable-but-not-terrible Coors Field/away splits that is moving to a pitcher’s park. Oakland, too, has a surplus of young outfielders, but I think Gonzalez was the most valuable trade chip and had the most potential to breakout in 2009. The offensive gain that Beane is paying for for 2009 may well be undone once 2010 rolls around, unless Travis Buck or Ryan Sweeney make The Leap. Street, to me, could have netted Beane more of a return in a separate deal considering the fact that teams want closers, especially budget-conscious teams. With all that considered, I think this one scores as advantage: Rockies.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Hopes to bring face-plant sliding techniques to the Bay Area. Billy Beane already rumored to be shopping him now in advance of the July 31 2009 deadline.
In a move that seems completely out of left field (no pun intended), the Oakland Athletics are about to acquire Colorado Rockies outfielder Matt Holliday. The return for Colorado has not yet been announced, but Billy Beane has certainly stockpiled young talent recently via trades. So, it is conceivable that this move didn't put much of a dent in the A's surplus of young talent. The first name to emerge in early reports is Greg Smith, a lefty who made 32 starts for the A's last year and posted a decent (7-16, 4.16 ERA 169 hits in 190 IP, 111::87 K::BB, 1.35 WHIP) rookie campaign, although walking way too many people and giving up 21 home runs (which would translate terribly to Coors Field).
This removes one of the biggest names of the offseason's trade market very early in the game. It has also completely ruined Bill Madden's stupid Fantasy Baseball lineup for the 2009 Yankees already, a mere week deep into the offseason! The idea of the Yankees being hot for Holliday was flawed from the start, considering they refused to trade prospects and sign a huge extension to land that guy who now pitches for the Mets. Holliday would have required the same type of scenario, or he would have been a one-year rental, something the Yankees don't do.
So, from the Bronx perspective, this should be a non-story, although you can guarantee the local media will spin it as Brian Cashman being too slow to act and getting out-maneuvered by that genius Billy Beane. At least, that's what I'm predicting now before any stories are written. I'll be sure to update this post when the specifics are finalized.
Thursday, November 8, 2007
The GM Meetings seem like such a surreal experience. The general managers of all 30 teams are in a hotel together, hanging out in Florida for a week sipping Mai Tai’s. You wonder which hall or floor of the hallway is the rowdiest; do they put the young guys (Andrew Friedman, Jon Daniels, Theo Epstein, et al) together, or do they separate them in the hopes of avoiding turning Orlando into a temporary Red Light District? How many dirty looks get shot Scott Boras’ way as he walks around? Maybe Jon Daniels went up to him and thanked him for The Opt Out because it gave him the opportunity to throw $30 million at Barry Bonds this offseason. It must be difficult for any GM to get too close to Boras, what with that smell of rotten flesh emanating from the bottoms of his shoes from stomping on so many organizations’ skulls.
Regardless of the potential comedy of the proceedings in Orlando, it’s an interesting time of the Hot Stove season. Teams can’t openly negotiate with free agents until next week, so the GM Meetings represent a great time for behind the scenes positioning and “secret, late night conversations” that set the stage for the bidding wars that will begin on Tuesday.
The early returns from the meetings, in the Yankees Universe, make only a few things seem certain:
1. A-Rod will be offered salary arbitration. This is a formality, as it seems extremely unlikely that Opt-Rod will accept arbitration or try to use it as a ploy to get the Yankees back to the negotiating table to once again talk contract. It is, however, an extremely helpful formality, since it ensures the Yankees not one, but two, compensatory draft picks; so hypothetically once the Angels sign A-Rod, the Yankees get their first round pick, plus a pick in the sandwich round. My knowledge of the potential strength or weakness of the 2008 draft is non-existent, but it still feels like a good thing based on the impetus placed on amateur talent over the past 3 years. Hopefully the surplus of picks will yield a position player of some merit, unless the Yankees are hoping to have the first ever 7-man rotation come 2010.
2. Johnny Damon will be playing left field almost every day next season. The superlatives thrown around by Cashman regarding Johnny in the meetings unearth numerous interesting possibilities. First, it made me immediately wonder if the press was overlooking the possibilities of an outfielder being trade bait that wasn’t Melky or Johnny: all the talk of ’08 thus far has excluded Godzilla from inclusion, and perhaps it’s loose speculation on my part, but he seems to be the trade bait in the outfield. His LF skills now seem diminished, his body has caused him problems for 2 years straight, he’s proven to be unflappable and a consummate professional while putting together nothing but solid statistical seasons in pinstripes, but he’s also a legitimate commodity in the trade market: his salary, $13 mill per year, is identical to Johnny, yet it seems like the Yankees are more enamored with what Johnny can provide them in comparison to Hideki. His year-in, year-out production would make him appealing to potential suitors, and the Yanks might be able to get more in return by dealing him as opposed to Damon. So while it might be perceived as another power threat removed from the middle of the Yankees order, you would stand more of a chance of replacing that power by dealing Matsui, and might even get something further than another run producer…perhaps, maybe, a proven and effective middle reliever, a commodity that the team strongly lacks these days.
With that said, 3B remains the hottest corner of debate for these months. Miguel Cabrera is the sexy first name to appear, but for once it seems certain that the rhetoric of not giving away young pitching seems legitimate and not just posing to up trade value. Any out of Hughes/Chamberlain/Kennedy won’t be traded anywhere except to Minnesota within the next two years, and that would involve the Yankees acquiring the best pitcher in the AL still in his prime, something that by July, depending on any of the 3’s performance, might not be such a bad thing.
So with them off the table, the options that surface are not particularly appetizing, but some are more intriguing than others.
-We know about Wilson Betemit. Cashman wants him to report in the best shape of his career, he put Robinson Cano in charge of it, and I don’t know how that will end up working out, but it’s worth a shot. He was considered, at one time, one of the better prospects in the game, so perhaps he’s due for some kind of late-20s revelatory moment. Too much of a gamble, it seems, to rely on that and that alone without bringing in an alternative, or at least a platoon partner.
-Now the speculation. Joe Crede seems out of the mix now that the organization has pledged its support for Johnny Damon, plus the Yankees have not been sexy-talking in regards to Crede’s ability or their discussions with the ChiSox. Since Kenny Williams, GM of the Sox, has stated publicly that they have 2 3B-men and they want to rectify that situation, perhaps Josh Fields is available as well as Crede? Either way, though, I don’t see the worth of trading talent for either one of them, since one is coming off an injury, and the other is still unproven and unpolished.
-Mike Lowell will, it seems, stick with the Red Sox. Good for him, good for the emotions of the ever-sappy Red Sox fans, also good for the Yankees as you can pretty much bank on him never repeating his 2007 numbers based on the foreseeable decline of his abilities and health. Sure you can talk about how his swing is perfect for Fenway, etc., but he had played there a whole season prior to ’07, to the tune of:
.284/.339/.475-20-80
Respectable, no doubt, for a third-bagger, and combined with his superlative defensive acumen, there is no way to criticize the Red Sox re-upping him for 3 or 4 years…except for what he’ll be looking like at the end of that contract. It’s not as much of a disaster to see a player like that age poorly on the team that he experienced the glory of his best career year culminating in a World Series victory; but it would be a disaster for him to age poorly after switching sides and probably being overpaid by the Yankees to play third and see his numbers decline. So, good for him, good for the Sox, and in the end, so too is it good for the Yankees.
-Other candidates, in quick-hit style:
a) Eric Chavez. Awful past two seasons, which have featured a huge decline in health and overall production, with 2007 seeming to be rock bottom. However, is he totally done? Remember that from 2000-2005 he was right around 25 HR/100 RBIs, plus a mid-to-high .800s OPS every single year, with 2006 representing a year full of injuries yet still seeing him manage to hit 22 HRs. His price might be lower now based on the uncertainty surrounding his health (back surgery this fall, combined with a shoulder surgery this past September, although he’s supposed to be ready for the spring.), but he still more resembles Joe Crede than Graig Nettles: great defender, power would translate to the Stadium better than Crede’s might, tons of questions. Plus you have the Billy Beane factor, where he’s going to try to seep a prospect or two that could be too valuable for the Yankees to part with.
b) Scott Rolen. No chance of hitting more than 10 HRs in Yankee Stadium since his shoulder barely is still attached to his upper body. His poor relationship with LaRussa makes it seem like he’d be available, but the Cards have said they don’t want to move him; plus, he has a no trade clause and would seem to be the last guy suited to play in New York based on his great desire to get the hell out of Philadelphia and his perceived air of sensitivity. He was productive as recently as ’06, but he seems to have an even lower likelihood than Chavez or Crede of performing admirably in the power/production categories once in the pinstripes. He would, however, be a pleasure to watch defensively at 3rd. Still, he seems the least likely candidate.
With that said, I don’t even know where else to look for other candidates. The likelihood of Wilson Betemit getting a lot of playing time at 3rd next season looks pretty strong as this third season of the baseball cycle gets heated up. As I alluded to before, it seems like we’ll have to wait and see if a mystery candidate emerges; or if A-Rod decides he hasn’t gotten enough attention since opting out and comes crawling back, although that would require him breaking up with Boras and taking a pay cut, two things that probably make A-Rod’s gag reflex kick in faster than food not cooked by he and his wife’s servants especially to their liking. Hopefully whoever ends up playing third can manage to catch the ball, advance runners and not give a shit who they’re replacing; really, that’s all that the Yankees should be using to judge any potential new hires for the job.
