Yesterday's Other Deal

The Washington Nationals and Florida Marlins orchestrated an inter-division deal yesterday, an opening salvo for two teams that could look a lot different come March. Florida sent Josh Willingham and Scott "Don't Tase Me, Bro" Olsen to the Nats in exchange for infielder Emilio Bonifacio and two low-level prospects, second baseman Jake Smolinski and right-handed pitcher P.J. Dean.

The Nats fill two needs: someone who may, possibly, drive in some runs. And, someone who isn't a total retread who can make some quality big league starts.

The Marlins...apparently they once again need to reduce salary? I don't get it, aren't they still trying to get a new stadium at some point? So now in 2 weeks since all the wheeling and dealing has begun, they've unloaded Mike Jacobs, Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen, and in return gotten exactly one hill of beans (to be fair, Leo Nunez should be a useful reliever. Then again, to be fairer, it's totally asinine to trade a power-hitting first baseman for a reliever). All this to avoid the arbitration raises that all three guys are due for as a result of actually performing somewhat decently in their careers. Yikes.

For the Nats I think the deal makes a lot of sense, but they are adding another huge injury question mark to their offensive mix that includes the likes of Nick Johnson (38 games, apparently now trade bait), Elijah Dukes (81 games), Wily Mo Pena (64 games) and Austin Kearns (86 games). Willingham has never been a huge bat but he is serviceable, and I guess Jim Bowden's idea is to accumulate as many OFers who have talent but are always hurt and see who of the bunch can stick. It would be one of the first ideas that Bowden ever had.

Olsen's inclusion is the real coup for the Nats, and the real head-scratcher for the Fish. They play in a pitcher's park in Florida, and Olsen had a decent year in 2008, albeit an up-and-down one. But, according to this Keith Law post, he regained some of his velocity (he is a post-TJ guy) late in the season and his performance ticked up a bit. Law still finds problems with Olsen, but wouldn't this be the kind of guy the Marlins would hold on to in the off-chance that he might pitch even better early in 2009, thus making him even more valuable in a trade? Yes, you run the risk of him either pitching terribly or getting hurt or something along those lines. But I don't buy the argument that this is selling high on Scott Olsen, who is supposedly healthy and over his "personal demons" for the first time in a while. Granted, he never projected to be Mr. #1 Ace Type, but I still think you can get more value than what the Marlins got for an effective lefty starter.

This trade lands decisively in the advantage: Nationals column. I am interested to see if the Fish get more of a return on their other supposedly available commodities, reliever Kevin Gregg and outfielder Jeremy Hermida. If not, it is going to be a cellar-dwelling 2009 for the Marlins. As for Washington, I don't know if this trade means they are done trying to upgrade the offense and are no longer in the Mark Teixeira Sweepstakes, but only time will tell on that front.

Matt Holliday Traded to Oakland

Hopes to bring face-plant sliding techniques to the Bay Area. Billy Beane already rumored to be shopping him now in advance of the July 31 2009 deadline.

In a move that seems completely out of left field (no pun intended), the Oakland Athletics are about to acquire Colorado Rockies outfielder Matt Holliday. The return for Colorado has not yet been announced, but Billy Beane has certainly stockpiled young talent recently via trades. So, it is conceivable that this move didn't put much of a dent in the A's surplus of young talent. The first name to emerge in early reports is Greg Smith, a lefty who made 32 starts for the A's last year and posted a decent (7-16, 4.16 ERA 169 hits in 190 IP, 111::87 K::BB, 1.35 WHIP) rookie campaign, although walking way too many people and giving up 21 home runs (which would translate terribly to Coors Field).

This removes one of the biggest names of the offseason's trade market very early in the game. It has also completely ruined Bill Madden's stupid Fantasy Baseball lineup for the 2009 Yankees already, a mere week deep into the offseason! The idea of the Yankees being hot for Holliday was flawed from the start, considering they refused to trade prospects and sign a huge extension to land that guy who now pitches for the Mets. Holliday would have required the same type of scenario, or he would have been a one-year rental, something the Yankees don't do.

So, from the Bronx perspective, this should be a non-story, although you can guarantee the local media will spin it as Brian Cashman being too slow to act and getting out-maneuvered by that genius Billy Beane. At least, that's what I'm predicting now before any stories are written. I'll be sure to update this post when the specifics are finalized.

Afternoon Delight?

Last night was a rarity. The bullpen blowout that cost the Yankees a lead late in the game has generally been rare this year, although not lately (see: the debacle in Anaheim this past Saturday). Mariano Rivera serving up the game-tying gopher ball is the shocking part of the equation. The offense, specifically the Golden-Rod, producing a timely home run to give them the lead, was surprising. Even more so was their ability to tack on 2 more runs after A-Rod’s blast to give 12th inning closer Edwar Ramirez a 3-run cushion.

What’s most shocking to me, though, is that they actually won an extra-innings game on the road. They had lost their only three extra inning road games this year, including one on that same Minnesota field on May 31st. Since 2007, their record in such games was a whopping 1-10. Not a huge sample size when you consider how few games it is total. However, all those circumstances make the win last night a satisfying one. The problem, however, is that there’s no way to predict if that win will have any positive residual effect on this afternoon’s matinée affair in the Hubert H. Humphrey Dome. The cliché is that a team’s momentum is based on the next day’s pitcher. That doesn’t seem to favor the Yankees, as Darrell Rasner is fresh off a demotion to the bullpen that he escaped thanks to Ian Kennedy’s physical and mental implosion in Anaheim. They are going to have to put some runs up on the board, early and often ideally. Kevin Slowey is a good candidate to comply, as the Yankees have already touched him up on two occasions so far this year. Should be an interesting game, for a number of reasons:

--A terrible Rasner performance could force the organization’s hand in deciding what to do next with the rehabbing Phil Hughes. This weekend’s starters are set, with Pettitte, Ponson and Mussina scheduled to toe the rubber. Next Tuesday in Toronto, however, is where it gets interesting, and Dan Giese is the central figure of interest. Giese deserves another start based on his performance Saturday in Anaheim. However, Dan is also the team’s best long reliever. It’s feasible that he’d be needed to pitch today and perhaps one game this weekend, if either Rasner, Ponson or Pettitte flame out early in their starts.

If he pitches twice between now and Tuesday, Phil will be up and starting in Toronto. If he doesn’t pitch today but is used over the weekend for an inning or two, I still think he starts on Tuesday. All of these scenarios aside, though, I think barring injury or poor performance at Scranton, Hughes is back in the rotation next weekend in Baltimore.

--Derek Jeter fouled a pitch off his instep of his left foot last night, and even though Girardi said that he thought he’d start today’s game, Jeter is on the bench. Wilson Betemit is starting at SS today, and you assume that Jeter will be well enough to start Friday night in the Bronx. It’s unbelievable to me how bad Betemit has looked at the plate all this season, yet how much confidence Joe Girardi has in constantly putting him in the lineup. How can occasional home run power overcome tons of strikeouts and defensive mediocrity? The Yankees’ bench has not been good in 10 years because of players like Betemit littering the roster.

--Tampa lost last night in Oakland so the Yankees picked up a game, and they’re now 8 back in the AL East race. No advance in the Wild Card hunt, as Boston won a football game against the Texas Rangers, 19-17. They were winning 10-0 after the first inning, yet Charlie “Tim Wakefield 2.0” Zink gave it all back in his major league debut.

It’s still unrealistic to be gunning for the Rays based on the size of the deficit, but Crawford and Longoria out of their lineup change their dynamic a whole lot. They have been winning all year with pitching, but their young pitchers have thrown a lot of innings and have never experienced the wear and tear of pennant race games in August and September. The possibility is still there, but the Yankees need to pretty much win or split every series they play from here on in, including against teams like the Angels, Rays and Red Sox. A tall order, for sure. Boston is more vulnerable head-to-head without Ramirez and with people like Lowell and Varitek struggling, but they are still winning games and scoring runs. The Yankees have to almost become a different team over the next 6 weeks, and a short-term personality makeover is hard to do in baseball. Usually by August, you are what you are as a team and your identity isn’t changing drastically.

--Mark Melancon gave up the 2 runs that Phil Hughes was charged with in Pawtucket last night, as he relieved Hughes in the 6th after Phil had allowed two men to reach base and had hit his magic pitch count number of 85. Still, though, bringing Melancon into the middle of an inning is a sign that the Yankees have to be considering promoting him to help their bullpen, which has struggled lately after a season of overachieving. It should be interesting to see if their from-within reinforcements (Hughes, Matsui, maybe Melancon) pan out this year. Kennedy is already firmly in the “didn’t pan out” category of reinforcements, and unlikely to move from there before October. But three out of four would be a great ratio.

Back later with more about today’s game.

Change You Can Believe In

When a team looks as bad as the Yankees have in the last four days, the days leading up to a game are excruciating. You want to fast forward from 1 p.m. to, in tonight's case, 8 so the game can get here already and the team can try and erase their recent awful play. If you're like me and you read the comments of other Yankees fans across the vast internet wasteland, you really want to see the overwhelming negativity about the team and its players silenced for at least 3 hours. I know those negative vibes won't totally go away until the Yankees are breathing down the necks of either Boston or Tampa, a scenario looking less and less likely as the days wear on, but days like today make you dream.

In my dream scenarios, here are five things that will happen across the remainder of the regular season to get this fast-sinking ship turned around:

#1--Melky Cabrera is optioned to AAA Scranton/Wilkes Barre and told to get his mind right and work extensively on his offensive game. He is promised a call-back when rosters expand on September 1st. Called up for the millionth time this year is reliever Chris Britton. Johnny Damon and Justin Christian split the time in CF, with Damon playing center against righty hurlers and Christian spotting him against lefties.


#2--Phil Hughes, after a strong rehab start in Scranton tonight, returns to the rotation this weekend against Kansas City and starts a string where he pitches the kind of baseball that everyone expected from him at the beginning of the season.

#3--Hideki Matsui has a successful rehab stint and rejoins the team as full-time DH during next weekend's series in Baltimore (wishful thinking, early next week in Toronto, but why risk his knee on the artificial turf?).

#4--Joba Chamberlain works himself back with a clean bill of health and returns to the rotation when the team opens a series on the road in Tampa at the beginning of September, taking Dan Giese's spot after he did a serviceable job filling in. The rotation for the stretch run is Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Sidney Ponson.

#5--Jason Giambi, Robinson Cano and Derek Jeter's offensive games come alive, and with the re-insertion of Matsui, the lineup consistently performs to the level that they were expected to coming in to the season.

Basically, all five of those things have to happen for this team to have any chance at making the postseason. The Melky Cabrera demotion, actually, doesn't have to happen--Johnny Damon playing 90% of the time in CF would suffice, although why not at least give Melky a chance to succeed at AAA and get his confidence up?

I don't believe all 5 will happen, and I don't believe this team is postseason bound. I just hope that they don't cash in their chips now and keep playing like a team that is giving in to the fact that injuries and inferior performances from expected contributors have already ended their season. Hank Steinbrenner today basically said he doesn't have a ton of confidence in the team rebounding this year but is psyched for next year. I don't want to give up yet, regardless of what he says.

Another Lost Night

Much was made of how Joe Girardi would be a great motivator, how he was a natural leader of men and would bring a spark that the Yankees had been missing during the stoic and calm Joe Torre years.

But this year has been full of nights like tonight, where the team looks as though it is going through the motions. It's as though the offense fails once early on, and then starts pressing and pressing, attempting to make it all up with one swing. Not the right way to get what is supposed to be a good offensive team off the snide.

Ivan Rodriguez and Melky Cabrera spit the bit bigtime tonight, stomping out the only rally the Yankees were able to muster against randomly unhittable Glen Perkins. It is amazing to me that Melky Cabrera has nine lives this season. How does a team that presents itself as a contender, plugs in 3 major league veterans at the deadline, allow a literal automatic out all year long to remain in the everyday lineup?

It's not as though Cabrera is some 10-year veteran who has a long track record of steady play. He's had one good full offensive season. This year he looks completely out of sync at the plate. Girardi seems to love Justin Christian enough to sit Johnny Damon, who is only leading the AL in hitting, but he won't sit Cabrera for an extended stretch after he keeps burning the Yankees' offense with a terrible approach and complete offensive futility?

The problem is that Gardner and Christian are not good enough to make anyone forget Melky. At the same time, though, they can't be too much worse at the plate. Gardner looked pretty terrible in his cameo, but are there no repercussions for 4 straight months of terrible baseball? Atlanta demoted what they considered a future offensive star, Jeff Francouer, for his terrible hitting throughout the year in an effort to get him started. Didn't work.

Isn't it worth a shot? And, this is in no way intended to point all the team's offensive blame at the feet of Melky, the expected #9 hitter who in a perfect world would be an offensive afterthought. But if he's going to remain in the lineup, there's going to be a chance for him to have important at-bats. And if he fails in those at-bats all year long, why does he keep getting the opportunity?

4 straight losses and a 2-6 road trip is a complete disaster. Best case scenario of 4-6 is ugly, and just getting to that point seems like an extremely up-hill climb considering Rasner throws on Wednesday afternoon. Things are looking bleaker by the day with the 2008 Yankees.

Rock Bottom, Revisited: Sweep to Make You Weep

Amazing that I don't post for almost 3 months yet the same issues are at the forefront of the Yankees' universe. Situational hitting has been an absolute nightmare all season long. It is almost unfathomable that a collection of hitters with as impressive track records as the Yankees' hitters have can look so utterly incapable of picking up runs when they are ripe for that picking.

I tuned into yesterday's game in the 7th inning. John Lakcey appeared to be on the ropes as he'd yielded an RBI single to Johnny Damon, giving the Yankees a 2-run advantage and a serious threat for more. Damon and Melky were on 2nd and 3rd, respectively, following a head-scratching yet still acceptable sacrifice bunt from Derek Jeter (2 runners in scoring position with 1 out is better than a potential rally-killing double play, something Derek has become extremely familiar with this year).

My viewing seemingly brought extremely bad omens to what appeared to be a promising situation. Bobby Abreu, who has been one of the team's better hitters with RISP this year, sharply grounded to second. Melky, running on contact within the infield, was gunned down at home. That brought up the team's worst offender in potentially run-producing situations lately, the flailing reigning MVP A-Rod. A strikeout later, Lackey was out of the jam.

2 innings later, the Yankees bullpen allowed 10 runs, completely flushing a great performance from rotation addition Dan Giese.

That 7th inning offensive flop carried over this afternoon: 2 for 12 with RISP, 14 men left on base total. They were within a few big hits of winning all 3 games against the best team in baseball. That, considering that Ian "2008's Biggest Flop Award Recipient" Kennedy only lasted 2 innings in his start Friday, makes this weekend's sweep even more disappointing.

The team limps into Minnesota with extremely bleak postseason prospects. Tampa Bay has not slowed down and has a comfortable 8.5 game lead in the AL East. The only solace to take from this so-far disgustingly ugly road trip is that Boston has done nothing to separate themselves in the Wild Card race-a 4 game disadvantage, considering how bad the team currently looks, is in no way insurmountable. Especially since the teams still play each other 6 times before season's end.

Needless to say, though, a lot has to change in order to make this season anything more than a total wash that will ultimately be chalked up to too many injuries and too much inconsistency. A good place for something to change would be in Minnesota, a team that is still ahead of the Yankees record-wise and could ultimately be a team they have to contend with for the Wild Card. Back tomorrow with the pitching match-ups and a preview of the series.

False Start to the Youth Movement (Nationwide)

It really did seem like the tide was turning and the youth movements across Major League Baseball were becoming more the norm than a sign of teams being fiscally uptight. And, across baseball you see more teams littered with prospects and highly-touted young talents. But so far in 2008, it has been an extremely tough year for some of the game’s most talented youngsters. I usually focus on New York’s version, Hughes and Kennedy, but across the board there are bigtime young talents either floundering, injured, or both.

The big one that broke today is Yovani Gallardo, extremely dynamic starter for the Milwaukee Brewers. He missed the first 3 weeks of the season recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery, and now it sounds as if he’ll miss the rest of the year recovering from a torn ACL. He’s already struck out 114 hitters in only 130 career innings, and he seemed like the sure-fire future ace in the Brewers’ rotation. Now, with his second knee problem this year, he’s looking like a sure-fire heir to the Ben Sheets throne of extremely talented yet too-often injured Milwaukee starter.

The next big name is Colorado’s Troy Tulowitzki. His problems start with his performance through the season’s first month, when he hit to a meager .152 AVG/.226 OBP/.238 SLG clip and was looking like the leading candidate for the Sophomore Slump Award. That was bad enough, but then the news broke that he tore a tendon in his left quadriceps (the favorite body part for injury for infielders so far this year) and is expected to be out until the All-Star Break (also known as, July).

Going back to the NL Central, early in the season it appeared that the Reds had found an immediate top of the rotation starter in Johnny Cueto. He started out unbelievably for a 21 year old, as through his first 4 starts his numbers were 26.1 IP 1-1 W/L 16 H 10 ER 3 BB/29 K 1.37 WHIP 3.42 ERA, an impressive line on a not-so-great team. His last two starts, however, have been one bad, one absolutely atrocious. On Apr. 29 against St. Louis he only lasted 1.2 innings, gave up 8 hits and 6 earned runs and saw his overall ERA balloon to 5.40. The shine has come off a bit, and now Dusty Baker is giving him a few extra days before his next start “to get his mind right”. The Reds have found quality out of their crop of highly-talented youngsters, though, as Joey Votto and Edinson Volquez have both performed extremely well in the early going.

Sticking in the same division, Houston has seen two of its young offensive prospects perform up to the standards of mediocrity so far this year. Hunter Pence, the unorthodox outfielder, has gotten off to a slow start, hitting a modest .250 but only producing 1 longball and 10 RBIs. He’s got a terrible K/BB ration of 23/5, something that makes his lack of productivity even more damning. Backstop of the future J.R. Towles has battled injuries since Spring Training, but is jumping back and forth between the interstate to start the year, consistently coming in in the .190-.200 range with his early-season average. Granted, he has connected for 4 home runs, and has been more patient than Pence, but his numbers are not where people expected them to be so far in 2008.

Going over to the NL East, offseason pickup and potential ace of the future for the Florida Marlins Andrew Miller has been an unequivocal letdown so far. He’s given up a disgusting 48 hits in 25.2 innings so far, and this is in the National League of all places. His ERA is an unsightly 9.12, outdoing even Phil Hughes for the lead in the putrid pitching category. The NL has hit a whopping .417 against Miller, not pretty considering the lineups are supposed to be thinner (I mean, the pitcher gets to hit) than the AL.

The AL Central features some disappointments, and we’ll start with some unfulfilling Minnesota Twinkies. Specifically a couple of guys they picked up in high-profile offseason moves. Delmon Young has yet to tally a home run and has only driven in 8 runs so far, a far cry from the productive bat the Twins were looking for when they dealt Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett for his services. He has managed to swipe 6 bags and score 13 runs, but his production can’t afford to lag this badly considering how little else he does offensively (meaning, no walks, no extra base hits right now). Likewise, Carlos Gomez, the main position player in the Santana deal, has looked pretty unimpressive with the stick. He can flat-out run, as seen through his 11 steals in 12 tries, but he also can flat-out not take walks: 2 walks to 25 Ks, not exactly what you want from a speedster meant to hit at the top of a lineup.

As shown through their flogging of the Yankees, the Tigers appear to be turning things around lately. One guy, however, who still has yet to head in the right direction has been their young flamethrower Justin Verlander. He’s currently 1-4 with a 6.50 ERA, and he’s been lit up even recently, while the Tigers have pulled themselves to .500 as a team. He has more walks (17) than strikeouts (14) on the year, a terrible sign for a power pitcher like him. The fact that he’s got a track record and calls a notorious pitcher’s park home leads one to believe he will figure things out, but red flags early, nonetheless.

The Royals have been a surprising team, but a past #1 draft pick of theirs has performed surprisingly poorly in their rotation thus far. Luke Hochevar has not channeled the success of Zack Greinke, who appears to be emerging as K.C.’s ace, as in his 2 starts with Missouri’s Big Blue he has an ugly 5.91 ERA, allowing 7 runs in 10+ innings of work. He’s struggled throughout his early career in both the minors and majors, but the chance of him turning it on this season as things start to go the Royals’ way seems unlikely at this point.

That’s all I can think of for now, though I’m sure I’ve overlooked some. One I know I could have mentioned was Jarrod Saltamalacchia, who didn’t break camp with the Rangers, but is now back and splitting time with Gerald Laird behind the plate. He qualifies as an N/A, since it’s not clear if he’s been a disappointment in the majors yet this year.