The Five Best Hot Stove Moves: Oct. 30-Today

We’re almost at the one-month watermark of the 2008 Hot Stove season, so there are some preliminary results available to try and gauge the successes and failures that have already occurred. This first installment will presumably be the thinnest on exciting trades and signings to obsess over, although activity has certainly picked up in the last week, and doesn’t seem ready to slow down until February. Without any further ado, time for my list:

5. Kansas City Royals Acquired OF Coco Crisp from the Boston Red Sox in exchange for RHP Ramon Ramirez.

I like this move for both teams, but more than anything I like the ideas Dayton Moore is throwing out there so far about rebuilding his team. He has been dealing, to me, the most combustible and unpredictable assets in the baseball market, relief pitchers, in order to fill needs on offense. Granted, he’s not getting overwhelming offensive talent in return—no one is confusing Coco Crisp and Mike Jacobs with Rickey Henderson and Mark McGwire, and K.C. fans (like this one over at Royals Review) are acknowledging that it’s a welcomed change but not a definitely-effective change. But, Crisp represents a great defensive center fielder that has the pedigree of a true leadoff hitter. Those are two qualities that none of the other outfielders on the Royals’ roster possess: Joey Gathright is fast but can’t hit a lick, DeJesus can hit but isn’t fast, below average defensively in center and not a true leadoff guy. Will this mean the Royals’ offense will be better in 2009? Maybe not, but it gives manager Trey Hillman more proven major league pieces to lean on. As for Boston, their middle relief was somewhat in tatters last season until Justin Masterson emerged, and since there are rumblings of stretching Masterson into a starter this was an area that GM Theo Epstein clearly had to address. In getting Ramon Ramirez he acquires arguably one of 2008’s best AL set-up men for an extra piece, but he also takes the risk of handing the CF/leadoff hitter job over to Jacoby Ellsbury, who underperformed expectations in 2008. It’s a logical move, though, considering Ellsbury is so many years younger and so many dollars cheaper to keep around than Coco. There is also risk in the fact that Ramirez’s performance may have peaked in 2008, and pitching in the unfriendly confines of Fenway against AL East lineups on a more regular basis may cause a spike in his ERA and stress levels in 2009. Still, more relievers like Ramirez means fewer Mike Timlin Sightings for the Sox in the coming season.

4. Colorado Rockies Acquired RHP Huston Street, LHP Greg Smith and OF Carlos Gonzalez from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for OF Matt Holliday

I looked at this trade in-depth as it happened a few weeks ago, and I still think the real victor through all this is the Rockies. There was much indecision (like Keith Law in this blog post) about how to score this deal for the Rockies. Most cite what they’ll ultimately do with Huston Street or the other 2 players received as the reason to grade this as Incomplete/Undecided, but to me that scenario alone is why I give the advantage to Colorado. The possibility of still finding a market for any of the three players again this winter gives Dan O’Dowd more flexibility and more chips useful in reorganizing a squad that made the World Series 2 years ago. On the other hand, the A’s and their ultra-wacky-eccentric-genius GM Billy Beane could hypothetically turn around and trade Matt Holliday again this winter, but no such speculation has emerged. Plus, I don’t know how the market would respond considering Holliday is truly a 1-year rental—suffice is to say that Beane would not get as much back for Holliday this winter as he paid. And, considering how run-starved the A’s were in ’08, acquiring Holliday makes immediate superficial sense. Looking deeper, though, Beane’s motives get a little murkier. Is he banking on some added pop in the middle of a pretty limp lineup, which he’ll transform this winter with further moves and signings? Or is he banking on his team still floundering in ’09, therefore trying to parlay some pieces that had lost their luster in his eyes into a shiny toy that can be exchanged (say, around July 31st) for yet more new pup prospects?

As it stands now, the ability to land a proven-to-be-adequate reliever, an extremely high-upside yet so far underperforming neophyte outfielder and a serviceable young lefty starter (whose stock drops since he’s coming off an injury and a not-great rookie year) for a player guaranteed to not resign with Colorado after ‘09 stands as a great achievement. I don’t think that they would have received as valuable a package, both in terms of immediate usability and potential for further flipping, from any other team in the running for Holliday’s services.

3. Florida Marlins Acquired RHP Jose Ceda from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for RHP Kevin Gregg

It’s been a Jekyll and Hyde performance for the Marlins so far this winter. An honorable mention for this list is due for their pick-up of reliever Leo Nunez from the Royals. In that trade, they successfully shed the dreadful no-walks, no-defense, soon-to-be-overpaid-because-of-his-power Mike Jacobs. I score that one out of the top 5 due to the relative ineffectiveness of only acquiring a relief pitcher in exchange for a power hitting first baseman—but then again, Mike Jacobs is pretty low on the totem pole of power hitting first baseman. Hence, a normally bad move for both teams becomes a slightly better move for the Fish. This trade, however, is their real coup so far. Kevin Gregg had been their closer during their period of surprising early-season success (43-39 through June, virtually the same record as the Yankees, who spent approximately $187 million more dollars on their roster), and he did a serviceable job. For the first half of 2008, his line was quite impressive—but the second half, not so much, as he dealt with a knee injury. Now, the Cubs undoubtedly wanted a proven relief pitcher with the departure of Kerry Wood, as it appears (unless they sign one) Carlos Marmol becomes their closer. But what I don’t get is how Kevin Gregg, due to make over $4 million in arbitration, is more valuable than a young, hard-throwing reliever who is both cheaper and projects better? In fact, Jose Ceda is a guy that Jim Hendry refused to trade for Brian Roberts during the Cubs/Orioles never-ending flirtation last winter; he was even referred to as “untouchable”! His year in the minors was mixed, featuring a good performance in AA but a mixed bag in high-A—for a reliever, he is still very young and his arm is still very lively. The Marlins in effect replace a decent but overpaid reliever with a cheaper, younger, more electric arm. Gregg moves from the pitcher-friendly cavern that is Dolphins Stadium to the wind-ravaged bandbox Wrigley. The Cubs will be glad to have him in their ‘pen, but the Marlins will be just as glad to get something of value for him and also not have to pay him. I think the Marlins get a great return on investment in this deal, especially in comparison to their next deal where, eh, not so much…

2. Washington Nationals Acquired LHP Scott Olsen and OF Josh Willingham from the Marlins in exchange for INF Emilio Bonifacio, RHP P.J. Dean and INF Jake Smolinski

This is a great move for the Nationals, which is rarely if ever been uttered in regards to their much-maligned, Segway-riding buffoon of a general manager, Snake-Oil-Salesman Jim Bowden. The Nats seem like a sure-fire candidate for a team reaping the benefits of a new stadium and ready to try and make a leap into spending more money and fielding a more competitive squad. There has been speculation that they will be targeting any of Manny Ramirez, Mark Teixeira, Adam Dunn or (gulp) Jason Giambi, so this move a precursor to the franchise’s attempt to run with the big boys this winter. It’s a solid one, as Olsen and Willingham at least slightly improve the team’s two most glaring weaknesses from 2008: their Odalis Perez and Tim Redding-heavy starting rotation and their woeful Cristian Guzman-led offense. For the Marlins, this is a garden variety salary dump, as Olsen and Willingham (along with the recently-departed Mike Jacobs) were due raises through arbitration this winter. Their return looks extremely underwhelming, as Bonifacio is an ADNO (All Defense No Offense) guy that probably ends up a bench player in the majors, and the other two prospects don’t really jump off any charts as blue-chippers or keepers. For Bowden, he has a contingency plan in place if he can’t manage to swindle any of those free agent hitters, and he’s got a starter who seems poised to continue to improve on the mound and will be, if nothing else, above average…which considering the Nats' rotation last year, is a huge plus.

1. New York Yankees Acquired INF/OF Nick Swisher and RHP Kanekoa Texeira from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for INF Wilson Betemit and RHPs Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez

Nick Swisher had a terrible year with the White Sox in 2008, that much is a certainty by looking at his stat line (the .219 BA is unavoidable, even though no one takes BA seriously anymore). However, he had a couple of good-not-great years prior to that, and he seems as though he’s got a solid identity as a plus OBP/patience guy at the plate and an average-to-slightly-above-average defender (at least everywhere but center field). On the flip side, Wilson Betemit was mentioned by Brian Cashman as someone who could replace A-Rod at 3rd if he left the team after the 2007 season. He then proceeded to transform himself into the human strike out machine from the right side of the plate, seemingly killing his identity as a supposed “switch hitter”. As a lefty, he can hit some balls out of the yard and drive the gaps once in a while, but his swing is Great Wall of China-long from both sides and he does a terrible job recognizing off-speed pitches, particularly change-ups. For some reason the Yankees thought he’d make a good first baseman this year and played him there numerous times, to little positive effect offensively or defensively. His best position is probably 3rd, and apparently Kenny Williams envisions him being useful there as a safety net in case Josh Fields or Dayan Viciedo are not ready for prime time in ’09. Through that prism, as well as the money saved (and now relocated to signing Viciedo) by dealing Swisher, Betemit’s value to the Sox makes sense. For the Yankees, a position player for $22 million over 3 years is like chump change considering what they’re dishing out for their core offensive guys. And, the competent flexibility it gives them heading into the heart of the Hot Stove will be an extremely valuable bargaining chip.

First, apparently Swisher and Sabathia are friends, which always helps in recruiting (LeBron James can’t be expected to do it all, can he?). Second, Cashman can already tell the prospective free agent pitchers that he’s upgraded the offense and defense for 2009 by landing Swisher—even if they’re unimpressed by his down year in ’09, they’ll recognize Swisher’s name and probably remember him making fun of them or joking with them at some point in their careers, so it adds a little “hey maybe New York will be fun” idea to the back of their heads (as if it will be fun when they see their face plastered across the back page of the Post with the word BUM involved after a poor start). Finally, once Cashman lands his pitcher or pitchers, if Mark Teixeira hasn’t signed a contract, he can give good-old Scott Boras a call and check in, wondering out loud if there’s any chance Mark has now lowered his contract sights. Cashman has the leverage to not get sucked up into a gross bidding war between a few teams, as he can always fall back on Swisher and any other bats he may acquire through trades this winter. Plus, the Yankees offense in 2008 would not have been as bad were it not for an inordinate amount of injury and underperformance. So, all in all, I think this one is a slam-dunk for the Yankees. Swisher will benefit greatly from swinging to the short porch in right, and I think his patience and power will do a good job of replacing some of the walks and patience that are signing with other teams in the form of Bobby Abreu and Jason Giambi. Defensively, he’s immediately better than both of those players in each of their positions. As for the other players involved, Jeffrey Marquez is so low on the Yankees’ pitching prospect totem pole at this point that he’s best suited for a new start in another organization. And, swapping Jhonny Nunez for a non-hitting Texeira seems like a wash-out. Big time advantage for the Bronx Bombers on this one, but the move will ultimately judged for both teams on what else happens this offseason.