Bird Bash?

Games 128-130
@ Baltimore Orioles

Pitching Match-ups

Tonight, Friday August 22
Mike Mussina (16-7, 3.35) vs. Radhames Liz (4-3, 7.47)

Saturday, August 23
Carl Pavano (0-0, 0.00) vs. Jeremy Guthrie (10-6, 3.15)

Sunday, August 24
Darrell Rasner (5-9, 4.93) vs. Daniel Cabrera (8-8, 4.98)

Series Analysis

So now the Yankees are in the precarious position of absolutely having to sweep the Baltimore Orioles this weekend in order to stay afloat. In New York, the Yankees have vanished from the back pages of the tabloids, which have mostly buried the team and turned their attention towards the Olympics and the Mets. The Post has engraved the tombstone and started the countdown until the Yankees are eliminated from playoff contention. And so the season has come and gone for the Yankees in the eyes of the daily papers and their lowest common denominator pandering. Still, there is a lot yet to be determined, and one of those things is if the Yankees are really totally dead or not. They have 1 and three-quarters feet in the grave, no doubt about it, but I think the series coming up against Boston, and what position the team is in when they start that series, is when you decide if the season is dead or not.

But, like I said, they pretty much need a sweep this weekend in Baltimore. They have to face two pitchers that have absolutely shut their offense down this year in Jeremy Guthrie and Daniel Cabrera, and they are subjecting themselves to a circus-like atmosphere by starting Carl Pavano on Saturday night. A sweep is not going to be easy to come by because of those factors. Any mis-steps by Yankees starting pitching will mean sure doom considering their offense has a glass jaw on par with a terrible team completely out of the race and playing out the stretch run in September. Meaning, they pack it in as soon as they fall behind by more than a run or two. Any four or five run deficit is insurmountable for this group of overpaid, underachieving, and aging one-time superstars.

So the weight of the “Yankees Universe” will fall on the shoulders of The Moose tonight in the park where he made his name. He’ll need to provide some sanity, and the offense will have to tattoo an erratic rookie, in order to set the stage for the return of the Plastic Pitcher.

My prediction for Saturday, I mean, I can’t even begin to predict that game. Pavano could come out and completely lay an egg and I wouldn’t be one bit surprised. He could throw a game like he threw on Opening Day 2007 when he gave up some runs but kept the game close into the 5th inning and gave way to the bullpen. He could also throw 6 or 7 shutout innings, and I wouldn’t be surprised. Nothing can ever surprise a Yankees fans anymore when it comes to Carl Pavano—he has re-written the book on surprising a fan base. And Guthrie is the Orioles’ best starter hands down, and he has pitched well against the Yankees in each of his starts against them this year. This to me is the hardest game of the series to predict a Yankees victory in. But, this year has been so bizarre that anything is possible—it’s not like the Orioles are a great team, but they have killed Yankees pitching all year, and I don’t see Pavano bucking that trend.

Sunday’s game could potentially be a high scoring one if the Yankees figure out how to hit Daniel Cabrera, a secret that the 13 other teams in the AL have picked up on this year. That combined with Rasner coming off an out-of-his-mind start against the Jays that I doubt he will recreate, means there should be some runs scored. The Yankees have not won many slugfests, but Camden Yards has been a friendly confines to them for many years, so I am guessing they end up taking 2 out of 3 in this series, winning tonight and Sunday.

Some random notes before I sign off for tonight.

--I am actually going to the Mets/Astros game tonight, in an effort to get there one last time before they turn the place into a parking lot, and because I need to see an actual baseball team that plays in New York in person (joking). It’s a great pitching match-up between Johan and Roy Oswalt, so I’m hoping for a great game. I still don’t regret not trading for and signing Santana, even as more and more fans clamor that the Yankees will end up paying more for Sabathia this offseason than they would have ended up paying for Santana. Those idiot fans don’t realize that they won’t have to both trade for AND sign Sabathia, though. Those same fans, however, have already decided that Phil Hughes is washed up and will never amount to anything so they should have just traded him last year.

--Speaking of the much-maligned Phil Hughes, he pitches again for Scranton/Wilkes Barre tonight. I will be curious to see if he overcomes his self-described dead arm and pitches more like he was in his first few rehab starts, as opposed to his outing last Sunday. A good performance by Phil and a poor one by Pavano on Saturday would increase some pressure to pull the plug on Carl’s starting gig and give Phil a shot. No concept of what the team’s leash will be like with Pavano, and I would be appalled if they gave him respect and actually ran him out there regardless of if he stinks it up or not.

I’ll be watching the out of town scoreboard from my seats at Shea tonight and hoping to see some crooked numbers next to NYY. Hopefully, there won’t be any crooked numbers popping up next to the BAL portion of the scoreboard.

Prognosis: Pavano

Nothing has been made official as of yet, but it is looking like Carl Pavano will be the team’s choice to start Saturday night’s game in Baltimore. It seemed like his candidacy was in doubt when the Post’s George King, the man who has most reviled Pavano during his time as a complete waste of the Yankees’ money and dubbed him the “American Idle”, broke this story about Carl suffering from a stiff neck the day after his Sunday start in Trenton.

He skipped his bullpen session on Tuesday, which seemed to be another red flag. Was Pavano again asking out of major league duty due to a mysterious injury?

It would appear, however, that the severity of his stiff neck and his skipping a bullpen have been clarified. Not just by GM Brian Cashman’s quotes that he was “fine” and was experiencing normal stiffness. No, Carl Pavano declared himself ready, as hard as this may be to believe, through his actions, namely walking up the mound and throwing in Trenton on Wednesday. He threw a bullpen that was described in this story as being “perfect” by Trenton’s pitching coach. I can only speculate what his definition of perfect is: perfect because Carl didn’t tweak his left ear while compensating for his stiff neck? Perfect because Carl showed up not reeking of booze from an all-night binge session of boozing and shacking up with a random New Jersey floozy? Perfect because he didn’t crash his Lamborghini on the way to the ballpark and break every bone in his pitching hand?

All jokes aside, Carl is currently the hands-down best choice for Saturday’s start. Considering Phil Hughes’ struggles in his recent Scranton outing and, well, the other choice being Victor Zambrano, I’d much rather see what Carl has to offer. For some reason a rotation that includes Sidney Ponson, Darrell Rasner and Victor Zambrano seems like it should be featured in the International League playoff race, not the American League Wild Card chase.

My perception of Crash-Test Dummy Carl, however, is a little different even in spite of all those “injuries” and all those frustrating days spent doing something other than pitching for my team. The few moments he’s been healthy in his career, he hasn’t been a terrible pitcher. So the question will be how his still-recovering pitching arm and arsenal will adjust to again facing major leaguers on Saturday. Baltimore has an extremely potent offense, so it will be an extremely tough test for Pavano. My guess is he will have a short leash, both in Saturday’s game and in general in terms of having a rotation spot. No string of good starts can really erase the 3 years of unbelievable frustration he caused, but it really will be must-see television when he toes the rubber in Camden Yards Saturday night.

I don’t mean to draw undeserved and unnecessary levels of attention to one game, because honestly it may not mean anything in the long run of the season. The game’s importance and Carl’s potential impact on the season will first and foremost depend on what happens over the next two games.

The Yankees are facing one of their (and the entire American League’s) biggest antagonists this season in Roy Halladay, and they have been awful in the first games of series all year long, so Friday in Baltimore is no sure thing, even if the O’s are throwing an erratic and hittable young starter. That could get balanced out since Friday’s starter for the Yankees, The Moose, has been knocked around by his former team this year. Granted, most Yankees starting pitchers have gotten knocked around by the Orioles this year, but hopefully that trend ends in Charm City this weekend.

So, by the time Carl takes the mound on Saturday, a lot of bad could be swirling around the team…and I don’t know how that is a good environment for one of the central harbingers of Yankees fans’ sorrows in recent years to make his triumphant return. But, then again, a lot of good could have happened once Pavano returns. A win tonight against Halladay would be a dream come true considering how easily he’s throttled the Bronx “Bombers” this year. That, following the tidy, clean win last night would be the perfect way to erase the bad taste left from Tuesday night’s fiasco, and it would give the team a lot of confidence as they head south to a ballpark where, historically, they’ve hit well and won a lot of games.

I’m excited by this wondrously bizarre development, but I can’t really get myself to focus totally on it until I see some more good results tonight and tomorrow. Suffice is to say, I’ve circled Saturday in red on my calendar.

So...Who Starts Saturday?

That is a major question that looms over the team as they begin their road trip. It's going to get answered sooner or later, but let's look at the two primary candidates a little closer.

Phil Hughes had a chance to cement himself as the Yankees’ best option to try and fill the #5 slot in the rotation this past Sunday. However, he struggled with his command was knocked around in his start against the Lehigh Valley IronPigs (great name for a minor league baseball team). His line for the night was 3.2 IP 8 H 5 ER 0 BB 4 K. After the game he spoke to Chad Jennings who covers the Scranton-Wilkes Barre Yankees for their local paper, and Hughes attributed his struggles to leaving too many pitches over the plate and going through a bit of a dead arm period resulting in diminished velocity and life on his fastball.

The phrase dead arm sounds worse than it actually is: Hughes has been out of action since late April, so he was bound to hit a wall after resuming the regular every-5-days routine for a pitcher. It seems like there is little cause for concern in terms of Phil’s health, but his stuff was simply not as sharp Sunday as it had been during his earlier rehab starts.

The other strong candidate, according to this report on ESPN, is the much-maligned Carl Pavano. He also pitched on Sunday, though his start was at Double A Trenton. He fared much better than Hughes, as his line read: 6 IP 6 H 1 ER 1 BB 6 K. When you look at Pavano’s numbers and consider his major league track record (he’s done it for longer, won more games than Hughes), he would seem to distance himself as the best candidate for Saturday. However, Pavano is still only in his 3rd start back from Tommy John elbow ligament replacement surgery. So one assumes that he normally would be on a slower-paced rehab timetable based on his injury’s severity. However, this is Carl Pavano we’re talking about, the man that has done jack diddly to earn the almost $39.95 million the Yankees have paid him during his 3 years on the organization’s payroll.

Perhaps he gets the first call in this his final 2 months with the organization in an effort to get something, anything out of that wasted investment. Whenever he gets called up (it has to happen sooner or later, because he’s only on a 30-day rehab assignment, as he hasn’t been demoted to the minors), it will be a huge distraction in the Yankees’ clubhouse. That said, I don’t think that the team’s feelings will be part of the decision making process re: Saturday’s starter.

My final guess is that it will be Carl Pavano in Baltimore on Saturday, and it will be quite a weird day. I think that the team will want to try the veteran first, with the hope that he will not feel any added personal pressure joining a team chasing a playoff spot. It’s dually productive because it gives Hughes more time to try and get his arm in shape and build up personal confidence by being successful at AAA. Furthermore, if Pavano is a terrible flop in his, say, two starts, and Hughes pitches well at Scranton, then they can switch to Hughes for #5.

All in all, I think Pavano makes the most sense on a lot of fronts. I would rather watch Hughes pitch, but I will also gladly sign up for the high drama and trainwreck/bizarre hero potential of seeing Pavano on the mound for the Yankees. Honestly, whoever they pick out of Phil or Pavano, Saturday’s game will be a must-watch for Yankees fans.

It Belongs In A Museum!

An off day leaves me looking ahead to a glorious day that will somehow unexpectedly combine two of my favorite things: the New York Yankees and the greatest action hero of all time, Indiana Jones. Yes, on May 22nd, some sort of Indiana Jones and the Island of the Crystal Skull-related event or events seem to be scheduled for the Yankees' home game that night against the Baltimore Orioles. What evidence is there of some sort of Indy/Yankee cross-over? Take a look at this image of the Yankees website's official schedule (courtesy of my man Cameron who pointed this out to me):



So as luck has it, this is the next game I have tickets to. Considering I've been anticipating the release of the new Indiana Jones film for months, the combination of the two events on the same day is pretty amazing. As a result, I plan on pulling the ultimate double feature on the night of the 22nd: a Yankees game against artifact-stealing moneygrubbers, embodied by the Baltimore Orioles (especially that Kevin Millar and his stupid facial hair), followed by a screening of the Island of the Crystal Skull. I've invited the biggest Indy Trilogy Fanboy I know, my good buddy Jesse, and we're expecting nothing short of an amazing night.

Mystery, though, still surrounds what that image of Dr. Jones on the Yankees' schedule really means. No evidence can be dug up on the vast interweb as to what specifically is happening between Indiana and the Yankees. My least imaginative assumption is a Spider Man 3-like gimmick of advertising the film copiously throughout the night's game. That means the bases being emblazoned with the film's logo, commercials or clips from the movie being shown on the Stadium's Diamond Vision as well as the YES broadcast, and so on. My fingers are crossed for an increase in glitz and glamor via Harrison Ford throwing out the ceremonial first pitch, while decked out in full hat and leather jacket Indy regalia. Although I suppose I could settle for a straightforward appearance...hell I'd even settle for a Shia LeBouf cameo.

If Speilberg and Lucas wanted to really capitalize on their MLB partnership, though, they would get creative and set up some elaborate interactive Indiana Jones-themed fanzones outside of Yankee Stadium on the night of their film's release. Imagine getting to recreate the opening boulder escape scene from Raiders of the Lost Ark in a giant inflatable replica that takes up all of River Avenue in the Bronx.

Or, maybe set up a life-size recreation of the infamous Temple of Doom. Where, you ask? Why, this would be the perfect opportunity to utilize the unfinished construction site that is the New Yankee Stadium! Think of it, if you charge admission, you turn a profit off the new Stadium a full year before it's due to open for games. Plus, the rickety, not-yet-safe structure would so easily become a hazardous exotic temple filled with hostile natives. Maybe they could even create a Virtual Reality version of the lovable sidekick Shortround to guide the paying customers through the Temple's various pitfalls and dangers. Think of the money the organization could make off this; it might make the front office crazies temporarily forget about all that $$$ that will be pouring in once those new Stadium luxury boxes are open for business, and switch their obsession to worshiping Indiana Jones' revenue-generating prowess.

If this seems a little too grand, then perhaps Harrison Ford can be called in to recreate the famous "sword vs. gun" scene from Raiders. Harrison would play Indy of course, and Jason Giambi could play the part of the steroid-fueled, crazed sword twirling brute. It'd be a fitting way to end his Yankees career, and it would save fans the embarassment of having to watch him (not) perform for the rest of the summer.

If none of these possibilities become realities, I will be at least a little disappointed. Although my disappointed would quickly be allayed by landing some free movie swag at the gate on the night of the 22nd. I also expect the Indiana Jones Theme Song to be played inside the Stadium through the course of the game, especially after someone on the Yankees hits a home run. It'd be even better than when they play The Natural Theme.

The Avian Threat

-Yankees head home going 5-1 between Toronto and Cleveland, ready to face a Baltimore team that they've struggled against all year long, to the tune of a 3-6 record. The pitching match-ups are not particularly appealing for the pinstripe crew, either:

Monday: (Chien-Ming Wang vs. Jeremy Guthrie) The Wang/Guthrie pairing nominally might favor the Yanks, yet they've had zero success against Jeremy Guthrie this season: (1-0) 12.1 IP 13 H 4 ER 4 BB 10 Ks. Still, Chien-Ming historically has pitched to an ERA a full run lower at home compared to on the road, and Guthrie's shine has dwindled a bit since the All-Star break, with his ERA post-Midsummer Classic 4.74. However, the Birds' hurler has also yet to lose a road decision yet this season. It will be interesting to see how all these tendencies work themselves out.

Tuesday: (Jeff Karstens vs. Daniel Cabrera) Thanks to the Rocket's suspension, combined with the rotation's dominance of the once-high-powered Tribe offense this weekend, we're treated to Jeff Karstens and his glowing 10.13 ERA on the hill Tuesday evening. All the talk was about 2006 1st round pick Ian Kennedy making his major league debut, but that hinged upon Karstens having to pitch in Cleveland. Since Karstens didn't leave his spot on the bullpen bench all weekend, he fully earns his chance to start on Tuesday in the thick of the pennant race. Of course, his availability allows the Yanks to avoid the headache of squeezing Kennedy onto the 40-man roster simultaneous to his potential call-up, so I'm sure it will have been for the greater good of the organization if and when Karstens gets spanked around and the team squanders a winnable game when every game needs to be won.

Wednesday: (Phil Hughes vs. Erik Bedard) The tastiest tandem of the three-game set in the series' matinée finale. Phil comes off his best start since The Star-Crossed May 1st, but now he's facing a lineup not struggling to figure out which way they're going, once again pitching in The Stadium (where he's been the Mr. Hyde of a 10.00 ERA, compared to the microscopic 0.73 in road grays) and against the league leader in Ks whose dominated the Yankees over the years. This is the most viewer-friendly game of the series in terms of name value as well as sheer talent on the mound. Hughes will have to provide innings, based on the assumption that Karstens most likely won't provide much length on Tuesday night. Overall though, it will be the marquee game of the series. Personally though, every time Hughes appears on the mound it's the marquee game these days. A player providing excitement simply by being the scheduled starter is something that the Yankees have lacked, despite their high-priced, greatly-experienced starters.

These three against Baltimore make for a potentially problematic stretch leading into the weekend's monumentally important series against Detroit. The New York squad taking two out of three doesn't look like an easy prediction based on the scheduled starters, but the Yankees have been too hot of a team to suddenly be wary of a team 8 games under .500. All the conjecture, though, by 7 p.m. tomorrow, will fade away to true hardball results.