Games 128-130
@ Baltimore Orioles
Pitching Match-ups
Tonight, Friday August 22
Mike Mussina (16-7, 3.35) vs. Radhames Liz (4-3, 7.47)
Saturday, August 23
Carl Pavano (0-0, 0.00) vs. Jeremy Guthrie (10-6, 3.15)
Sunday, August 24
Darrell Rasner (5-9, 4.93) vs. Daniel Cabrera (8-8, 4.98)
Series Analysis
So now the Yankees are in the precarious position of absolutely having to sweep the Baltimore Orioles this weekend in order to stay afloat. In New York, the Yankees have vanished from the back pages of the tabloids, which have mostly buried the team and turned their attention towards the Olympics and the Mets. The Post has engraved the tombstone and started the countdown until the Yankees are eliminated from playoff contention. And so the season has come and gone for the Yankees in the eyes of the daily papers and their lowest common denominator pandering. Still, there is a lot yet to be determined, and one of those things is if the Yankees are really totally dead or not. They have 1 and three-quarters feet in the grave, no doubt about it, but I think the series coming up against Boston, and what position the team is in when they start that series, is when you decide if the season is dead or not.
But, like I said, they pretty much need a sweep this weekend in Baltimore. They have to face two pitchers that have absolutely shut their offense down this year in Jeremy Guthrie and Daniel Cabrera, and they are subjecting themselves to a circus-like atmosphere by starting Carl Pavano on Saturday night. A sweep is not going to be easy to come by because of those factors. Any mis-steps by Yankees starting pitching will mean sure doom considering their offense has a glass jaw on par with a terrible team completely out of the race and playing out the stretch run in September. Meaning, they pack it in as soon as they fall behind by more than a run or two. Any four or five run deficit is insurmountable for this group of overpaid, underachieving, and aging one-time superstars.
So the weight of the “Yankees Universe” will fall on the shoulders of The Moose tonight in the park where he made his name. He’ll need to provide some sanity, and the offense will have to tattoo an erratic rookie, in order to set the stage for the return of the Plastic Pitcher.
My prediction for Saturday, I mean, I can’t even begin to predict that game. Pavano could come out and completely lay an egg and I wouldn’t be one bit surprised. He could throw a game like he threw on Opening Day 2007 when he gave up some runs but kept the game close into the 5th inning and gave way to the bullpen. He could also throw 6 or 7 shutout innings, and I wouldn’t be surprised. Nothing can ever surprise a Yankees fans anymore when it comes to Carl Pavano—he has re-written the book on surprising a fan base. And Guthrie is the Orioles’ best starter hands down, and he has pitched well against the Yankees in each of his starts against them this year. This to me is the hardest game of the series to predict a Yankees victory in. But, this year has been so bizarre that anything is possible—it’s not like the Orioles are a great team, but they have killed Yankees pitching all year, and I don’t see Pavano bucking that trend.
Sunday’s game could potentially be a high scoring one if the Yankees figure out how to hit Daniel Cabrera, a secret that the 13 other teams in the AL have picked up on this year. That combined with Rasner coming off an out-of-his-mind start against the Jays that I doubt he will recreate, means there should be some runs scored. The Yankees have not won many slugfests, but Camden Yards has been a friendly confines to them for many years, so I am guessing they end up taking 2 out of 3 in this series, winning tonight and Sunday.
Some random notes before I sign off for tonight.
--I am actually going to the Mets/Astros game tonight, in an effort to get there one last time before they turn the place into a parking lot, and because I need to see an actual baseball team that plays in New York in person (joking). It’s a great pitching match-up between Johan and Roy Oswalt, so I’m hoping for a great game. I still don’t regret not trading for and signing Santana, even as more and more fans clamor that the Yankees will end up paying more for Sabathia this offseason than they would have ended up paying for Santana. Those idiot fans don’t realize that they won’t have to both trade for AND sign Sabathia, though. Those same fans, however, have already decided that Phil Hughes is washed up and will never amount to anything so they should have just traded him last year.
--Speaking of the much-maligned Phil Hughes, he pitches again for Scranton/Wilkes Barre tonight. I will be curious to see if he overcomes his self-described dead arm and pitches more like he was in his first few rehab starts, as opposed to his outing last Sunday. A good performance by Phil and a poor one by Pavano on Saturday would increase some pressure to pull the plug on Carl’s starting gig and give Phil a shot. No concept of what the team’s leash will be like with Pavano, and I would be appalled if they gave him respect and actually ran him out there regardless of if he stinks it up or not.
I’ll be watching the out of town scoreboard from my seats at Shea tonight and hoping to see some crooked numbers next to NYY. Hopefully, there won’t be any crooked numbers popping up next to the BAL portion of the scoreboard.
Friday, August 22, 2008
Monday, August 18, 2008
Brian Bannister brought out the best in the Yankees’ offense. His line was pretty impressive:
1 IP 10 H 10 ER 3 BB 0 K 3 HR
Top to bottom, the offense did what many have been waiting for: exploded, and beat a team with a mediocre pitching staff to a pulp. Granted, something can be said for how bad the offense looked the first two games of the series against bona fide AL starters Gil Meche and Zack Greinke. However, even in those two low-scoring, hotly contested games, the Yankees had plenty of men on base and therefore had plenty of opportunities to push runs across.
Sunday could not have started worse for the struggling lineup, either: Mike Mussina immediately put the cold-swinging hitters at a 3-0 disadvantage as a result of a soft rally by the Royals that featured a lot of bleeders and bloops. A-Rod, however, turned the momentum around in the bottom of the 1st, when he launched a game-tying three-run home run off Bannister, the first of those three homers he would allow.
Mussina wouldn’t surrender another run on the day, and the Yankees pretty much kept their foot down on the gas offensively and bludgeoned Kansas City to earn an even split of the season series. As I said, top to bottom is how the production spread out. Be it Derek Jeter going 4-for-4 (they were all singles, though, so I guess he still stinks and can’t hit with any authority), or A-Rod’s 3-for-3, or Jason Giambi actually getting a big hit with numerous runners on base (a grand slam, no less). Brett Gardner had a 2-out RBI triple, Xavier Nady ended a small slump by going 2-for-4 and hitting the go-ahead longball in the bottom of the 1st, and even Cody Ransom blasted his first home run as a Yankee.
The team goes into the off day having gained 2 games on Boston in the Wild Card race this weekend after Josh Beckett had a disastrous 2.1 inning performance (8 hits, 8 runs) against Toronto in Fenway, as the Red Sox fell 15-4.
Those same Toronto Blue Jays are the next foe for the Yankees, as they start a 3-game set north of the border tomorrow night. The Yankees have drawn some tough pitching match-ups for the upcoming series, which I will spend more time in previewing tomorrow.
For now, though, yesterday was a good day in the Bronx. The Wild Card race will continue to include the Yankees as long as they continue to win series and perhaps begin to play some consistent offensive baseball. Help may or may not be on the way with Hideki Matsui set to return in Toronto, although it is unknown what his swing will look like and how he’ll perform after a lengthy time disabled, as well as how his knee will hold up.
Still, at least today is another day that the Yankees didn’t lose. Tomorrow may be a different story.
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Professional sports always involves discussions of momentum. Baseball has a cliché to neutralize any speculation that a particular win can jumpstart a middling team: your momentum is only as good as the next days’ starting pitcher. In the Yankees’ case, at least Darrell Rasner is starting on Tuesday instead of this afternoon.
The team had a chance to win the series in Minnesota but the bats remained dormant in the third game of that series. They again have a chance to overcome two days of insipid performance with the bats in RBI situations with a strong showing this afternoon against soft-tossing Brian Bannister. At least Meche and Greinke can somewhat be attributed to the offense’s futility Friday and Saturday, although the “tip your hat to the pitcher” card as been played to ridiculous excesses this season. But if the bats aren’t swinging today, there are no excuses other than just not being capable of performing anymore this year.
After yesterday’s grueling almost 5-hour Chinese water torture session of stranding runners and pitching superbly keeping Kansas City scoreless for 11 innings, this afternoon is a sure-fire must win. Throwing around labels like “must win” on baseball games is never an exact science, but all the stars are aligned for the Yankees. They have to start this stretch of baseball against inferior teams with a 2-1 mark. Going to Toronto 1-2 against K.C. means the death knell has sounded.
Mike Mussina will be leaned on heavily to keep pitching like the reinvented maestro on the mound that he’s become—if he shows any signs of laying an egg today, it will be dually disastrous as the bullpen had to work a long long afternoon yesterday. They could use the rest, and the offense could use the assurance that they have their best performing up to his capabilities on the hill. Perhaps that will remind the hitters that they, too, should be performing up to their much-talked about but rarely seen “capabilities” this year.
Here are some other interesting notes to wrap up before today’s game:
Hideki Matsui has had 8 at-bats for the High-A Tampa Yankees over the last 2 days, and he also took part in a simulated game this morning in Tampa, according to Peter Abraham’s blog. Abraham also speculates that he could return to the lineup as early as Tuesday, if his knee holds up. I guessed that they might wait until Friday since they wouldn’t want him running on the artificial surface in Toronto, but a win today could increase the sense of urgency in terms of putting the best offensive foot forward for the stretch run. Either way, adding a professional hitter like Hideki into the #5 spot, which has been a black hole this year while he’s been disabled, could do wonders to help the lineup as a whole, as well as New York’s #1 head case who hits cleanup. Giambi looks like total dead weight at the plate, and Nady has gone into his first slump as a Yankee, so the spots in the lineup behind A-Rod could use some reinforcement.
Granted, though, a lot of this optimism needs to be taken with a grain of salt and also shrouded in the potential for a let-down. His knee is guaranteed to require surgery. Meaning he is not any healthier than he was when he first went on the DL, he’s only been able to get to the point where he can treat it, wear the right protective gear, and deal with the level of pain that comes with hitting and running the bases. However, if anything goes wrong, if there are any tweaks, or if it swells up again and just doesn’t respond to the grind of playing major league baseball, Matsui’s return will end up being very short-lived, and the lineup will go back to relying on Jason Giambi for big at-bats with men on base. Along that line…
Brett Gardner got the game-winning hit yesterday, but if Matsui returns his playing time most certainly will evaporate. Granted, Matsui won’t be able to play every day, but he will be in the lineup at DH as often as Girardi can swing it, meaning Damon will be in CF and Brett will be on the bench. It would be encouraging going forward, though, if Gardner could string together some good games at the plate until Matsui is ready to return. It gives him more confidence in his ability to hit at the big-league level, and it also makes the question of who will be starting in CF in 2009 a little harder to answer. Furthermore, if Matsui breaks down, there is already a backup plan in place, with Brett sliding back into center field and Damon mostly DHing and playing left. Also, looking ahead to 2009, a good stretch run for Brett may give him as much of a chance of winning a job in Spring Training as Melky or anybody else brought in from outside the organization. All in all, interesting consequences follow Brett’s at-bats at this point in the year.
Phil Hughes will make his 3rd start for Scranton today, with their game scheduled to begin at 5:35 pm. My hope is that if he pitches well, finishes strong and doesn’t fatigue once he gets up to around 100 pitches, he needs to make a start in Baltimore. He has too much ability and he could be too much of a stabilizer to their rotation to leave at AAA to continue to “work on some things”, as Girardi put it when probed about Phil starting on Tuesday in Toronto. At this point, a rotation of Mussina, Pettitte, Ponson, Rasner and Hughes is serviceable enough, and if Joba is ever able to return in September, their rotation looks a lot better, as Ponson and Hughes at the back end look extremely appealing. Still, though, Hughes will have a lot to prove upon his return this year—fans will not be accepting any guff about him having to work his way back into big-league form, as was the case last year when he returned in August. Coming off his putrid April and combined with his ceiling-free expectations in the eyes of the faithful, Hughes will be expected to step right in and contribute. It’s a lot to ask of a 22 year old starter that’s been inconsistent and injured most of his short career, but based on his handful of shining moments it is not out of the question for Phil to live up to those expectations.
That’s all for now, I’ll write again this evening to talk about this afternoon’s game and wrap up any other relevant pieces of information that pop up.
