Games 128-130
@ Baltimore Orioles
Pitching Match-ups
Tonight, Friday August 22
Mike Mussina (16-7, 3.35) vs. Radhames Liz (4-3, 7.47)
Saturday, August 23
Carl Pavano (0-0, 0.00) vs. Jeremy Guthrie (10-6, 3.15)
Sunday, August 24
Darrell Rasner (5-9, 4.93) vs. Daniel Cabrera (8-8, 4.98)
Series Analysis
So now the Yankees are in the precarious position of absolutely having to sweep the Baltimore Orioles this weekend in order to stay afloat. In New York, the Yankees have vanished from the back pages of the tabloids, which have mostly buried the team and turned their attention towards the Olympics and the Mets. The Post has engraved the tombstone and started the countdown until the Yankees are eliminated from playoff contention. And so the season has come and gone for the Yankees in the eyes of the daily papers and their lowest common denominator pandering. Still, there is a lot yet to be determined, and one of those things is if the Yankees are really totally dead or not. They have 1 and three-quarters feet in the grave, no doubt about it, but I think the series coming up against Boston, and what position the team is in when they start that series, is when you decide if the season is dead or not.
But, like I said, they pretty much need a sweep this weekend in Baltimore. They have to face two pitchers that have absolutely shut their offense down this year in Jeremy Guthrie and Daniel Cabrera, and they are subjecting themselves to a circus-like atmosphere by starting Carl Pavano on Saturday night. A sweep is not going to be easy to come by because of those factors. Any mis-steps by Yankees starting pitching will mean sure doom considering their offense has a glass jaw on par with a terrible team completely out of the race and playing out the stretch run in September. Meaning, they pack it in as soon as they fall behind by more than a run or two. Any four or five run deficit is insurmountable for this group of overpaid, underachieving, and aging one-time superstars.
So the weight of the “Yankees Universe” will fall on the shoulders of The Moose tonight in the park where he made his name. He’ll need to provide some sanity, and the offense will have to tattoo an erratic rookie, in order to set the stage for the return of the Plastic Pitcher.
My prediction for Saturday, I mean, I can’t even begin to predict that game. Pavano could come out and completely lay an egg and I wouldn’t be one bit surprised. He could throw a game like he threw on Opening Day 2007 when he gave up some runs but kept the game close into the 5th inning and gave way to the bullpen. He could also throw 6 or 7 shutout innings, and I wouldn’t be surprised. Nothing can ever surprise a Yankees fans anymore when it comes to Carl Pavano—he has re-written the book on surprising a fan base. And Guthrie is the Orioles’ best starter hands down, and he has pitched well against the Yankees in each of his starts against them this year. This to me is the hardest game of the series to predict a Yankees victory in. But, this year has been so bizarre that anything is possible—it’s not like the Orioles are a great team, but they have killed Yankees pitching all year, and I don’t see Pavano bucking that trend.
Sunday’s game could potentially be a high scoring one if the Yankees figure out how to hit Daniel Cabrera, a secret that the 13 other teams in the AL have picked up on this year. That combined with Rasner coming off an out-of-his-mind start against the Jays that I doubt he will recreate, means there should be some runs scored. The Yankees have not won many slugfests, but Camden Yards has been a friendly confines to them for many years, so I am guessing they end up taking 2 out of 3 in this series, winning tonight and Sunday.
Some random notes before I sign off for tonight.
--I am actually going to the Mets/Astros game tonight, in an effort to get there one last time before they turn the place into a parking lot, and because I need to see an actual baseball team that plays in New York in person (joking). It’s a great pitching match-up between Johan and Roy Oswalt, so I’m hoping for a great game. I still don’t regret not trading for and signing Santana, even as more and more fans clamor that the Yankees will end up paying more for Sabathia this offseason than they would have ended up paying for Santana. Those idiot fans don’t realize that they won’t have to both trade for AND sign Sabathia, though. Those same fans, however, have already decided that Phil Hughes is washed up and will never amount to anything so they should have just traded him last year.
--Speaking of the much-maligned Phil Hughes, he pitches again for Scranton/Wilkes Barre tonight. I will be curious to see if he overcomes his self-described dead arm and pitches more like he was in his first few rehab starts, as opposed to his outing last Sunday. A good performance by Phil and a poor one by Pavano on Saturday would increase some pressure to pull the plug on Carl’s starting gig and give Phil a shot. No concept of what the team’s leash will be like with Pavano, and I would be appalled if they gave him respect and actually ran him out there regardless of if he stinks it up or not.
I’ll be watching the out of town scoreboard from my seats at Shea tonight and hoping to see some crooked numbers next to NYY. Hopefully, there won’t be any crooked numbers popping up next to the BAL portion of the scoreboard.
Friday, August 22, 2008
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
There are a lot of words that come to mind when trying to describe what I just witnessed for the last two and a half hours. I’ll start with the pleasantries and build to the darker matters, because I like to lead with the good and finish with the bad, for no reason in particular.
It was a great pitchers’ duel, something I did not expect in the least if the Yankees were going to end up losing. To me, this was the type of game with a lopsided Yankees loss written all over it, more so than a gritty, nail-biting heartbreaker decided in the final inning. But Darrell Rasner outperformed any sane person’s expectations and threw an absolute gem. He got through 6.2 innings giving up only 3 hits and 1 run and departed with the game tied at 1, hoping his team would scratch something across against A.J. Burnett or the Jays’ bullpen.
Okay, so…other good news from this game:...
…..Hideki Matsui came back?
Where to begin on the negatives. Might as well start in inning #1: I figured that Johnny Damon’s defense would hurt the team when the merry-go-round on the basepaths began, and runners were going from 1st to 3rd and scoring from 2nd on singles to center. I did not worry about Johnny’s ability to catch the ball when hit his way. After all, he played center for his entire career leading up to this year. But in the first inning, he dropped a routine fly ball hit by Alex Rios that put runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out. Rasner amazingly got out of the jam, but the Yankees had just taken a lead on Burnett and gave their back of the rotation starter some breathing room. To immediately force him to unnecessarily work that hard in the 1st inning was a sure-fire bad sign.
From there on, it was the A.J. Burnett vs. Darrell Rasner Show. It is hard to tell the difference between the Yankees offense struggling and the opposing pitcher being on top of his game. Regardless, for some reason the rest of the league has been able to get to A.J. Burnett. The Yankees, however, can not touch the guy. Jason Giambi, A-Rod, Johnny Damon, they all looked completely overmatched in their at-bats against Burnett. Giambi has been particularly dreadful regardless of his grand slam against Kansas City. He got 1 hit in that entire series, which happened to be that homer, and tonight he struck out a whopping 4 times, including twice with runners in scoring position.
To be shut down again and again by one pitcher makes me question the Yankees’ hitters ability to adjust and determination to overcome adversity. Those are two things that this year’s team seems to completely lack. If a pitcher is said to “have their number” this year, he keeps that number and exploits the team’s hitters again and again. You can look to Josh Beckett, Burnett, Oliver Perez, and Daniel Cabrera for good examples of this. Yet, only one of those guys is what you would call a legitimate “ace” pitcher (Beckett).
Adversity, well that has sunk the Yankees’ chances in many games this year. Unless they are in complete control of a game this year, it has been near impossible for the team to suck it up and fight back, or deal with any random things that go wrong in the course of 9 innings or more.
Johnny Damon dropping an unfathomable second fly ball in the bottom of the 8th inning, costing his team a run, is some serious adversity. How does the team respond in the top of the 9th? By having a leadoff single by A-Rod turn into a 3-6 put-out while Alex was trying to turn a single into a double. The play was made by an outstanding Overbay hustle effort, but Alex could have played it safe and remained at first knowing that it meant the tying run would be on and some good hitters (allegedly) were following him.
Then again, Jason Giambi is no longer a “good hitter” following A-Rod. He predictably recorded his 4th strikeout, this one at least against B.J. Ryan (a night of pitchers with abbreviated first names for Toronto). The thinking is that A-Rod was trying to get something started in the 9th, and I understand that and fault him less than bring the play up to point out how everything possible has gone wrong this year for the Yankees. But you wouldn’t be so adamant about trying to get to 2nd base to lead off if you had more faith in the guy hitting behind you. That’s not to say that A-Rod thought that as he ran towards second, but the sense of urgency would be there because of the #5 man’s struggles.
All in all, a disaster. I am ready to give up hopes of the team finding a way to get red hot and make it into the playoffs, just because it seems as though this group of players can not find any magic to get them anywhere near hot. Playing decent baseball and winning the final games in Yankee Stadium will be enough at this point.
To put a cherry on top of a terribly disappointing night, this story about Carl Pavano pops up. It is completely mind-boggling that as soon as he becomes discussed as a possible option for the Yankees’ pitching staff, he again comes up with an injury. A stiff neck? A stiff neck is going to keep a pitcher who has been out for almost 2 full years from making his potential return to the major leagues? I’m going to probably be the first person writing about baseball to do this, but I’m going to have to go ahead and question Carl Pavano’s fire and desire to pitch for the Yankees.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Today is dark on the schedule, so it makes it easier to let the ineptitude of the team’s now mercifully completed road trip really sink in. 3 wins out of 10 games away from the Bronx. Utterly pathetic, even when you consider that three of the losses were against baseball’s best team—two of those games the Yankees were in positions to win, so you can’t chalk it all up to being overmatched or outclassed by a better team.
Even the off days seem dark considering how far behind the team has fallen and how little time is left to make this season relevant. Based on how bad the team looks right now, I’m driven to consider what the roster might look like next season as an alternative to dwelling on the present. It is going to be an extremely interesting offseason for the Yankees, and it is extremely premature to be speculating on what will happen, but I am going to run through a short list of moves I think need to be made:
A) Bring back Brian Cashman. He has a plan that needs to be carried out for a while longer—he has put the organizational onus on drafting the best players available and being willing to overpay them, thus stocking the farm system for the first time in a long time. It has not been all sunshine and roses (See: Expectations for Hughes and Kennedy in 2008), but there is still so much talent in the organization. It should be Cashman who decides which of those guys to keep and which of those guys to move, and he should be given the chance to use all the pieces he picked to put together a championship. Sign him to a 3 year deal, and if he hasn’t produced a winner by year 2, maybe he doesn’t live to see year 3.
B) Say goodbye to Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, Richie Sexson, Wilson Betemit, Ivan Rodriguez and *gulp* Carl Pavano. These guys are either flat-out free agents, or have team options that should not be picked up (Giambi & Pavano). That’s 20% of the active roster already deleted right there. Out of the group, Abreu is the one that I would consider bringing back, but only if he wanted to take an incentive-laden 2 years guaranteed/3rd and 4th year option deal. On the open market, though, he will certainly get a better offer than that.
C) Offer a ton of money to CC Sabathia to return to the American League, not drift further west towards his Oakland hometown. Out of all the other “marquee” free agents (Mark Teixeira, Ben Sheets, Adam Dunn for sure, guys like AJ Burnett and Rich Harden have options), Sabathia is the best fit for the Yankees. Much debate revolves around replacing Giambi with Teixeira, but he will demand a long (7 year) contract for money that supposes that he’s on the level with Albert Pujols or other elite-type first basemen, which he isn’t. Plus, there are enough position players on this team under long-term contracts, and adding another extremely long deal to the mix removes any of the gained financial flexibility from the departures of those 5 players I mentioned earlier.
D) Try to fill the voids created at first base and in the outfield through trades and potentially low-key free agent signings. This is where Brian Cashman can get really creative. The team has stockpiled a lot of prospects since the organizational philosophy shifted in 2005—this is probably the best offseason to start exchanging trading chips for major league talent. You have to go out there and scour the Earth to see if there is a first basemen that is not aging, has athletic ability, is a decent situational hitter and can play good defense. The philosophy shouldn’t be, “We need a new power threat who can mash 30 HRs!”. It should be, “We need to find the best baseball player available at this position, who fits our needs both financially and on the field”. First base has to be the priority in terms of trades, but if a deal came along for an outfielder who fit that previously mentioned profile, AND has experience playing CF, I would hope that Cash would jump at that.
E) This last point kind of goes along with Point D. Decide the fate of the hideously obnoxious tandem of Melky and Robbie by asking some tough questions. Cano is going to end up having his worst full year in the majors, and he has looked God awful while doing it, but we’ll talk about his buddy in CF first
Melky has become an abomination at the dish, and is quickly losing playing time to Johnny Damon and Justin Christian. His value is much lower than it was during the offseason last year, but he is still only 24. Do you try and deal him in any trade you want to make to fill other voids left by Abreu and Giambi? And if you do, are you signing a stopgap to replace him, or giving Brett Gardner a chance to win the job in Spring Training, or what? And if Melky is still around, you absolutely have to tell him that he must earn any playing time he’s going to get in 2009. He didn’t have any competition for the job this year, and it burned them in the end because it seems like he now takes his job for granted.
As for Cano, the Yankees have to decide if he is their best option as a second baseman for the next 3 years. They have to recognize that other teams would want Cano due to his previous success, age, and cost-controlled nature, on top of a lot of raw talent that teams would think they could tap in to. All those things combined, Cano is the commodity that would land the Yankees the biggest return of talent if traded. If you can land a difference-making offensive player, or if you miss on Sabathia but there is another bigtime pitcher available, you have to consider trading Cano.
All these things considered, it will certainly be an interesting offseason in the Bronx this fall.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
When a team looks as bad as the Yankees have in the last four days, the days leading up to a game are excruciating. You want to fast forward from 1 p.m. to, in tonight's case, 8 so the game can get here already and the team can try and erase their recent awful play. If you're like me and you read the comments of other Yankees fans across the vast internet wasteland, you really want to see the overwhelming negativity about the team and its players silenced for at least 3 hours. I know those negative vibes won't totally go away until the Yankees are breathing down the necks of either Boston or Tampa, a scenario looking less and less likely as the days wear on, but days like today make you dream.
In my dream scenarios, here are five things that will happen across the remainder of the regular season to get this fast-sinking ship turned around:
#1--Melky Cabrera is optioned to AAA Scranton/Wilkes Barre and told to get his mind right and work extensively on his offensive game. He is promised a call-back when rosters expand on September 1st. Called up for the millionth time this year is reliever Chris Britton. Johnny Damon and Justin Christian split the time in CF, with Damon playing center against righty hurlers and Christian spotting him against lefties.
#2--Phil Hughes, after a strong rehab start in Scranton tonight, returns to the rotation this weekend against Kansas City and starts a string where he pitches the kind of baseball that everyone expected from him at the beginning of the season.
#3--Hideki Matsui has a successful rehab stint and rejoins the team as full-time DH during next weekend's series in Baltimore (wishful thinking, early next week in Toronto, but why risk his knee on the artificial turf?).
#4--Joba Chamberlain works himself back with a clean bill of health and returns to the rotation when the team opens a series on the road in Tampa at the beginning of September, taking Dan Giese's spot after he did a serviceable job filling in. The rotation for the stretch run is Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Sidney Ponson.
#5--Jason Giambi, Robinson Cano and Derek Jeter's offensive games come alive, and with the re-insertion of Matsui, the lineup consistently performs to the level that they were expected to coming in to the season.
Basically, all five of those things have to happen for this team to have any chance at making the postseason. The Melky Cabrera demotion, actually, doesn't have to happen--Johnny Damon playing 90% of the time in CF would suffice, although why not at least give Melky a chance to succeed at AAA and get his confidence up?
I don't believe all 5 will happen, and I don't believe this team is postseason bound. I just hope that they don't cash in their chips now and keep playing like a team that is giving in to the fact that injuries and inferior performances from expected contributors have already ended their season. Hank Steinbrenner today basically said he doesn't have a ton of confidence in the team rebounding this year but is psyched for next year. I don't want to give up yet, regardless of what he says.
